Recently, I came across a quite interesting historical question and wanted to discuss it with everyone—if Qian Hongchu had not surrendered to the Song, how long could Wu Yue survive?

First, let's set the background. In 974 AD, Zhao Kuangyin ordered the attack on Southern Tang. Qian Hongchu received not an invitation but an order. Wu Yue sent an army of 50,000 troops to cooperate with the Song army from the east to encircle and attack Jinling. At this time, Li Yu wrote a letter to Qian Hongchu, with the core message being: "Without me today, how can there be a ruler tomorrow?" The meaning was straightforward—if Southern Tang falls, the next to go will be Wu Yue.

But there was a key move here. After reading the letter, Qian Hongchu did not reply but directly handed the letter over intact to Zhao Kuangyin. Many say he was showing loyalty, but I think he was actually sealing Wu Yue’s last escape route.

You need to understand Wu Yue’s geographical position to see this clearly. The core area of Wu Yue is today’s Zhejiang, plus Suzhou and Fuzhou regions. To the north and west are all Southern Tang territories. This layout determined one thing—Wu Yue had to have someone standing in front to survive. For decades, Southern Tang was that barrier, blocking the Central Plains’ invasions. The Central Plains fought Southern Tang, burned Southern Tang’s houses, and killed Southern Tang soldiers. Wu Yue was safe behind, quietly building dams, planting mulberry and hemp, and engaging in maritime trade. Ships at Hangzhou port were lined up end to end. Su Shi later wrote about this period, describing the wealth of “ivory, rhinoceros, pearls, and jade, surpassing all under heaven,” referring to these prosperous days.

This is Wu Yue’s survival code—diplomacy with the north, attack from the south. The rule established by Qian Hongchu’s grandfather, Qian Liu, was followed by three generations and five kings, with no mistakes for over seventy years. But this logic had a fatal premise: Southern Tang must exist.

In 975 AD, Jinling fell, and Li Yu surrendered. The situation after Southern Tang’s fall was more severe than anyone expected. Song forces encircled Wu Yue from three sides, leaving only the eastern sea open. Qian Hongchu understood what this meant. In March 978, he was summoned to Kaifeng to meet the new emperor, Zhao Guangyi. On the day of departure, he went to pay respects at his grandfather Qian Liu’s tomb, and he broke down crying, unable to stand. He was mourning his ancestors’ legacy, the retreat route he had personally destroyed.

When he arrived in Kaifeng, Zhao Guangyi showed him great respect. He was brought into the palace with sword and boots, and issued an imperial edict—an honor once only given to Cao Cao. But the more courteous they were, the more dangerous it was. As Qian Hongchu hesitated, Chen Hongjin stepped forward and presented the “Acceptance of Land” document. This move was essentially telling him: if you don’t surrender, others will. In May, Qian Hongchu formally submitted all thirteen prefectures and eighty-six counties of Wu Yue.

So, was it possible for Qian Hongchu to preserve Wu Yue? Theoretically, the path was clear, as Li Yu had already written in his letter. Wu Yue and Southern Tang would have joined forces, attacking Song from both north and south. At that time, the Song front was stretched very long, with supply lines crossing half the Yangtze River. If Wu Yue had instead attacked Song’s flank from the east, Zhao Kuangyin might not have been able to conquer Southern Tang easily. Historically, the Song siege of Jinling lasted a whole year, and Zhao even considered withdrawing midway.

But in reality, Qian Hongchu could not do this. Wu Yue’s military autonomy had been eroding since the Later Zhou period. In 955, when Zhou Shizong attacked Southern Tang, Wu Yue’s army was incorporated into Zhou’s military. This relationship was fully inherited by the Song Dynasty. Qian Hongchu’s desire to act alone was impossible—command was not in his hands. Plus, Wu Yue’s finances had been drained by tributary payments; their porcelain, silk, gold, silver, and tea were shipped annually to Kaifeng.

More fundamentally, the “respect for the Central Plains” policy accumulated by three generations of the Qian family had become the political foundation of Wu Yue. Qian Liu’s instructions were clear: “All Chinese rulers, even if they change surnames, should treat others well.” Suddenly turning around to ally with Southern Tang against Song was not only unacceptable to Zhao Kuangyin but probably also unpopular within Wu Yue itself. Qian Hongchu didn’t fail to see this path; he simply couldn’t walk it.

In August 988, on his sixtieth birthday, Zhao Guangyi sent gifts and fine wine. After the banquet that night, a meteor fell in front of his chamber. The next morning, Qian Hongchu died. The Wu Yue kingdom, which had lasted for seventy-two years, finally completed its historical mission.