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Just caught Mosaic's Q4 earnings and yeah, they missed on both fronts. Lost $1.64 per share when everyone was expecting adjusted earnings around 48 cents. Sales came in at $2.97B versus the $3.2B estimate, so weak volumes across the board.
The potash side actually did okay with prices up to $264/ton from $199 last year, but phosphate margins got crushed - gross margin dropped to $17/ton from $85. Volumes were softer too, especially in the Fertilizantes segment where they only moved 2.1M tons instead of the 3.2M expected.
Looking ahead they're guiding Q1 potash volumes at 2-2.2M tons with MOP prices expected $255-$275/ton. Full year 2026 they're targeting around 9M tons of potash and 7M+ tons of phosphate. Stock's only up 10% over the past year while the fertilizer industry gained nearly 20%, so there's some catching up to do if these volumes stabilize.