Cocoa's been getting hammered lately. NY March futures hit a 2.25-year low today, down about 1.16%, and London cocoa sliding to 2.5-year lows. This six-week selloff is looking pretty brutal if you've been watching the charts.

What's killing it is basically abundant supplies meeting weak demand. Global cocoa stocks jumped 4.2% year-over-year to 1.1 million metric tons according to ICCO data from late January. ICE inventories just hit a 4-month high too. Meanwhile, demand's just not there - chocolate makers are struggling because consumers won't pay these prices. Barry Callebaut, the world's biggest bulk chocolate producer, saw cocoa division sales volume drop 22% last quarter. European grinding fell 8.3% year-over-year, the worst Q4 in 12 years.

Nigeria's pumping out more cocoa too - exports up 17% year-over-year in December. But here's the thing: Ivory Coast farmers are actually shipping less cocoa to ports this season, down 3.8% compared to last year, which is at least some support. West African growing conditions are looking solid though, so the February-March harvest could be pretty robust.

On the brighter side, Nigeria's cocoa production is projected to fall 11% year-over-year for 2025/26, which could tighten things up eventually. But right now, with abundant supplies and chocolate makers cutting orders, the pressure on prices feels pretty relentless.