Just saw Sunrun's earnings and honestly, rough stuff. Stock got absolutely demolished Friday, down over a third. The revenue beat looked solid at 1.16 billion, up 123% year-over-year, but that's where the good news ended.

Here's what spooked everyone: their net subscriber value tanked 30%. Funding costs are eating them alive, tariffs are making everything more expensive, and they're adding fewer subscribers. Then management drops the bomb with negative growth guidance for 2026. They're projecting way lower numbers across the board - subscriber value down to 5 billion from 5.6 billion, net value creation cut to 850 million from a billion.

The regulatory situation is brutal too. With the solar tax credit phasing out end of 2025, Sunrun's forced to pivot hard into direct sales and subscriptions where the margins are actually decent. But that means shrinking the business while costs keep climbing. It's a tough spot when you need to cut back just as inflation keeps hitting you from all angles.

The timing couldn't be worse either. Producer price inflation numbers just came in hotter than expected, so there's zero relief coming on the cost front. For a company like Sunrun that's basically pricing in future cash flows through subscription valuations, higher interest rates and inflation mess with those calculations big time.

Long story short, maybe there's a buying opportunity after a 35% drop, but there's way too much uncertainty around regulations, tariffs, and rates to feel confident we've hit bottom. Probably worth watching how this plays out over the next quarter or two.