Just watched the markets do that classic risk-on pivot after the initial Iran shock. Pretty textbook stuff actually - stocks got hammered at open when the US and Israel launched those joint strikes, but then the dip buyers came in hard and we saw a solid rebound by mid-session.

The numbers tell an interesting story. S&P 500 barely positive at +0.07%, but the Nasdaq 100 actually rebounded well with +0.44%, while the Dow lagged at -0.06%. The real action was in the sector rotation though - defense stocks absolutely crushed it (Northrop Grumman, RTX up over 4%), and energy producers went parabolic with crude hitting an 8-month high.

WTI crude soared past +6% today as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz basically froze after Iran attacked three oil tankers. That's a massive deal because that strait handles about a fifth of global oil supply. Goldman Sachs is pricing in an $18/barrel risk premium if the strait stays blocked for six weeks. Iran only produces 3.3 million barrels per day, but the geopolitical location makes it strategically critical.

What's interesting is the rebound in bond markets initially happened on safe-haven demand, but then reversed hard. The 10-year yield jumped +10.5 bp to 4.04% as inflation concerns kicked in from those oil prices. The ISM prices paid index actually screamed higher to 70.5 - a 3.5-year high - which is signaling real sticky price pressures ahead.

Manufacturing data came in stronger than expected though. The ISM manufacturing index hit 52.4 versus expectations of 51.5, which definitely helped stabilize sentiment during that rebound phase. That's what triggered the mid-day pivot.

Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks got crushed today though - Seagate down over 5%, AMD and ARM down more than 3%. Airlines also got hit hard with crude surging, which cuts into margins. But if you're holding any crypto-exposed equities, you probably saw some nice gains. Bitcoin is up around 6% on the day, and stocks like MARA and MSTR are leading the rebound in the Nasdaq 100.

The rebound narrative really hinges on whether this Iran situation stabilizes. We've got a busy week ahead with ADP employment data, ISM services, earnings season wrapping up, and then the big jobs report on Friday. Markets are currently pricing in basically zero chance of a rate cut at the March meeting, so the Fed probably stays put.

One thing worth watching - crypto-related plays rebounded nicely today with Bitcoin pushing higher. If you're tracking this stuff on Gate, the volatility from geopolitical events like this is exactly why diversification across different asset classes matters.