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Just noticed something interesting about Energy Transfer that might be worth paying attention to. The MLP has been on a solid run this year, up over 13% and sitting around $19 per unit. But here's what caught my eye - the company's valuation still looks pretty cheap compared to peers, even with this rally.
So what's driving the momentum? Basically two things. First, after a sluggish 2025 where growth only hit 3.2%, Energy Transfer is accelerating again. Management is guiding for over 10% earnings growth this year, which is back to the kind of pace they were hitting from 2020 through 2024. Second, oil prices are rising, which is always a tailwind for these midstream players.
The really interesting part is the project backlog. They've got major expansion projects lined up through 2030 - the Hugh Brinson Pipeline and Transwestern Pipeline expansion are both multi-billion dollar bets. Plus there's growing demand from data centers and power producers for natural gas infrastructure. That's real fuel for continued growth.
Here's where it gets compelling. If Energy Transfer keeps growing earnings at around 10% annually and maintains its current valuation multiple, the math gets you to $30 per unit in roughly five years. But the kicker is that the company trades at less than 9x forward earnings - the lowest in its peer group where the average is above 11x. So if they execute on growth AND get some valuation re-rating, you could see $30 hit way sooner.
They've got the financial flexibility to fund all these projects too. Enough capacity for acquisitions when the right opportunities show up. With natural gas demand accelerating, especially from the AI and energy infrastructure buildout, Energy Transfer looks positioned to sustain that double-digit growth trajectory.
Not saying it's a slam dunk - energy infrastructure is cyclical and policy-dependent. But the combination of accelerating growth, a massive project pipeline, and trading at the cheapest valuation in the sector is definitely worth keeping on your radar if you're looking at energy exposure.