Just been watching the coffee futures action on Friday and it's pretty mixed out there. Arabica was up a bit while robusta took a hit, but honestly both are still dealing with the fallout from earlier in the week. The dollar weakness helped spark some short covering, but that's not enough to reverse the bigger pressure we've been seeing.

The real story with us coffee prices right now is all the supply headwinds. Brazil's looking at a massive crop - up 17% year-over-year for 2026 according to their forecasters, and they got decent rainfall in Minas Gerais too. Then you've got Vietnam crushing it with exports, up 38% in January alone. That's a ton of robusta hitting the market. Colombia's the only bright spot since their production actually dropped 34% year-over-year, but it's not enough to offset what's coming from Brazil and Vietnam.

Inventories are another thing I'm tracking. Both arabica and robusta stocks have bounced back from their lows, which isn't helping prices. The USDA is calling for global production to hit a record 178.8 million bags next year, though they're saying arabica specifically might tighten up a bit. But with all this supply coming online, I'm not sure how much that matters for us coffee prices in the near term. The consolidation we're seeing feels like the market's still trying to find a floor with all this bearish data.