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A 5% long-term bond yield, and the opportunity cost has genuinely increased.
This change has intensified the tightening of the financial environment, putting greater pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates again within the year, with the likelihood exceeding 50%, marking the first time since the tightening cycle that market expectations for rate hikes have significantly surpassed those for rate cuts.
The recent auction clearing yield for the 30-year Treasury bond is approximately 5.06%, with secondary market trading close to 5.1%, the highest level since the global financial crisis.
As real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum increases, leading to a de-risking of the market toward risk assets.