$77k Bitcoin, do you want to cut your losses?

ETF has been net outflowing $2 billion for 7 consecutive days, the 200-day moving average at 81K has been hit twice, and the funding rate has been negative for 81 days in a row—yet just now, long-term holders quietly accumulated 16.3 million BTC, hitting a new all-time high.

First, look at the surface: bad news everywhere, but the price hasn't collapsed.

In the past 30 days, BTC dropped from 82.8K to 77K, a correction of about 7.5%, retreating 39% from the all-time high of 126K. Market cap is $1.54 trillion, 24-hour trading volume is $27.7 billion, and the price repeatedly fluctuates between 76.8K and 78.1K. It can't fall further, but it can't rise either.

First thing: ETFs are running, but old hands are疯狂接盘.

In the past 7 days, US stock spot Bitcoin ETFs have net outflows of nearly $2 billion, with two days alone losing $1 billion. BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC led the decline, headlines all about “institutional retreat.”

Long-term holders (LTH) supply surged to 16.3 million BTC, breaking a multi-year downward trend and hitting a new all-time high.

Second thing: macro is hurting, but the worst may be over.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in the second half of 2025, now at 3.5%~3.75%. Everyone expected further cuts in 2026, but when the dot plot was released—expectations for rate cuts were cut, and there’s even a 54% chance of discussing “rate hikes.”

Risk assets are trembling collectively, and BTC is kneeling along with Nasdaq.

Funding rate has been negative for 81 days straight, with extreme bearish sentiment. In such extreme situations, history often shows a reversal on the eve.

Third thing: a strange signal appears on the technical chart.

78K is the True Market Mean average cluster, which has turned from support into resistance. 81K is the 200-day moving average, which was hit twice and caused a pullback. Short-term is indeed weak.

But RSI dropped from overbought 72 to near oversold 33. This rapid cooling usually signals the end of a shakeout.

On one side:

- LTH supply hits a new high, old hands are疯狂吸筹 between 75-80K

- SpaceX holds 1.45 billion, MicroStrategy owns 816,000 BTC, surpassing BlackRock

- Regulatory good news: “Clear Law” + presidential directives, improving institutional liquidity expectations

- 75K~77K is a strong bullish bottom zone, repeatedly validated

On the other side:

- ETF outflows of $2 billion, institutions are short-term避险

- Fed hawkish, rate hike discussions reappear

- 200-day moving average at 81K was hit twice, technical pressure

- Seeing your account in floating loss, feeling anxious

Key level: 77K, the last line of defense for bulls and bears.

Resistance above: 78K → 81K (200MA) → 85K

Support below: 76.5K (intraday low) → 75K (LTH cost zone) → 72K~74K (extreme black swan)

Short-term traders:

Buy the dip in batches at 76.5K~77K, stop-loss at 75K, first target is to reduce at 78K, second target at 81K. Above 78K, consider light short positions with a stop-loss at 81K.

Swing traders:

Wait for ETF to have net inflows of over $500 million for 3 consecutive days, or for funding rates to turn positive, then add positions. Target 85K~90K.

Long-term believers:

75K~77K is the dollar-cost averaging zone. End-of-2026 target is 90K~110K, betting on Fed pivot + deeper institutional allocation. But remember—if the Fed remains hawkish at the June meeting, BTC might revisit 72K~74K, and at that point, don’t be scared, that’s the entry point.

BTC now is just like before the 2024 halving—

99% of people think “the bull market is over,” but once ETFs pass, it doubles in three months.

If you sell at 77K, you’ll have to make it back at 90K later. #TradFi交易分享挑战 #灰度购入超51万HYPE并质押 $BTC $ETH $SOL