Coffee futures wrapped up Friday with mixed signals as traders digested some pretty significant supply shifts. May arabica ticked up slightly, while robusta gave back some ground, but both seem to be finding support after getting hammered over the past few weeks.

The real story here is what's happening with global coffee supply. Brazil's looking at a record harvest - Conab came out with projections showing 2026 production climbing over 17% year-over-year, which is massive. Arabica specifically is up 23% and robusta up 6%. Meanwhile, Vietnam's cranking out coffee like crazy too, with January exports jumping nearly 40% compared to last year. For robusta prices, that's pretty bearish news considering Vietnam's the world's largest producer.

On the flip side, Colombia's coffee output is struggling. Production dropped 34% in January alone, which should support arabica prices somewhat. And Brazil's actual exports in January fell 42% year-over-year, which is interesting - suggests some tightness in near-term supply despite the bullish production forecasts.

Inventories have been recovering too. Both arabica and robusta stockpiles bounced back in recent months after hitting multi-month lows, which generally puts downward pressure on prices. The USDA's projecting world production will hit a record 178.8 million bags in 2025/26, though they're calling for a slight dip in arabica offset by stronger robusta growth.

Looking at the chart through Barchart's coffee tracking, you can see the consolidation pattern pretty clearly after those sharp losses. Dollar weakness on Friday helped pull some shorts in, but the fundamental picture - bumper crops and rising exports - keeps the bias tilted toward lower prices unless something shifts with demand or weather.