#TradFi交易分享挑战 US Dollar Index (USDX) Market Analysis

Current Market
As of mid-May 2026, the US Dollar Index trades within the 98.50-99.30 range, showing a recent oscillating upward trend.
Fundamental Analysis
1. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Expectations
U.S. April CPI increased by 3.8% year-over-year, the largest gain since May 2023
The market is beginning to reprice the possibility of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 3.70%
The ongoing Middle East situation (Iran conflict) continues to support safe-haven demand
Following the meeting between the top leaders of China and the U.S., market attention is on trade negotiations
Straits of Hormuz shipping disruptions pushed oil prices higher, intensifying inflation concerns
3. Major Currency Pair Performance
EUR/USD: around 1.1328, with the euro accounting for 57.6% of the USDX
GBP/USD: around 1.3507
USD/JPY: around 144.33, with Japanese authorities intervening in the forex market multiple times

Support levels: 96.20-97.00 (key support zone), 98.50 (short-term)
Resistance levels: 101.00-102.00 (previous high zone)
Technical Pattern:
The US Dollar Index stabilizes within the 96-97 support zone
On the daily chart, it shows a oscillating consolidation pattern• After falling from the 110 high point, it is attempting to build a bottom structure

Market Outlook
Bullish Factors:
Inflation pressures may force the Federal Reserve to shift back to a hawkish stance
Uncertainty in the Middle East persists
Rising U.S. Treasury yields attract capital inflows
Bearish Risks:
U.S. fiscal deficit and debt issues (Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating)
If Middle East conflicts ease, safe-haven demand diminishes
Long-term global "de-dollarization" trend

Investment Recommendations
The US Dollar Index is currently at a critical turning point, supported in the short term by rate hike expectations and safe-haven demand, but still facing structural challenges in the medium to long term.
Focus on:
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and officials’ speeches
U.S. inflation data (CPI, PCE)
Developments in the Middle East
Whether the USDX can break through the 101.00 resistance level$USIDX