Micron Technology (MU)

Micron Technology has recently experienced a significant correction. After a remarkable rise in 2026, rebounding +650% to +920% from the cycle lows, and an intra-year expansion of nearly +120% to +170%, the stock price retreated from a historical high of approximately $795~$805 to the $720~$760 range, a pullback of about 5.5%~8.2% from the peak. Subsequently, due to concerns over oversupply in the memory market, the stock further declined by about 14%, sparking investor worries about a potential slowdown in the semiconductor memory market.

This correction is not an isolated event but part of a global re-pricing of risk assets: First, international oil prices surged to $100~$103 per barrel, with overall CPI year-over-year reaching 3.8%. High oil prices have significantly contributed to inflation, and the recalibration of discount rates has exerted an estimated valuation compression pressure of approximately -5%~ -12% on high-growth, high-beta stocks; second, the memory industry itself is facing concerns over a supply-demand turning point—DRAM and NAND chips may experience oversupply and softening prices.

Bull and bear divergence

The bullish side believes that AI-driven HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) has strong long-term demand, and Micron, as a key supplier of NVIDIA's HBM, can achieve a compound annual growth rate of 40%~60%. The bearish side points out that the memory industry has historically experienced clear boom-and-bust cycles, and it is worth being cautious about whether the upward cycle has already peaked. Factors such as Samsung and SK Hynix catching up, and intensified competition in HBM, make the risk of a downward cycle unavoidable.