Evening Bitcoin Outlook

After Bitcoin breaks above the triangle pattern, it tests the support at 77379 twice, forming a double bottom structure. Under normal market conditions, this support remains solid, and only a sudden major negative event would cause a direct breakdown.
Core market contradiction: The price has attempted to break above 78300 three times but was resisted and pulled back each time, and a shooting star candlestick appeared at the high, indicating strong selling pressure at this level. It’s difficult to break through solely with its own momentum; external positive catalysts are needed.
Weak upward momentum and support during decline suggest that in the short term, the price will likely oscillate within the 77379‑78324 range, shaking out traders.
Key risk points:
If the price rises again but still cannot break through 78300, the support at 77379 after multiple tests will weaken continuously and is likely to be effectively broken later;
However, the recent rebound peaks are slightly higher than the previous two, which is a positive signal. As long as the highs keep rising, the probability of breaking above resistance remains. Conversely, if the highs gradually decline, the market will weaken directly.
Trading suggestions:
• Break above 78015 with volume and hold steady, then go long on the right side, targeting 79227‑80272. If this level is not broken, the bullish trend will struggle to develop;
• Break below 77333 with volume and fail to recover on the rebound, then go short on the right side, strictly setting stop-loss;
• On the 4-hour chart, a confirmed break below 77351 indicates a bearish trend, with downside targets of 76466‑75270.