Iran gains actual control over the strait; this geopolitical leverage is too strong.

ADNOC CEO Sultan Jaber stated that even if the Middle East conflict ends, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will take at least four months to recover to 80% of pre-war levels, with full recovery not expected until the first or second quarter of 2027. This forecast is extremely pessimistic within the industry, highlighting the long-term impact of the Iran conflict on the global economy. The strait is nearly closed, and the IEA calls this the largest energy crisis in history, with Iran gaining de facto control over a key passage, driving up oil prices and inflation, and increasing global recession concerns.