By The Numbers: How Much Bitcoin Supply Is Exposed To Quantum Risk?

Analytics firm Glassnode has broken down how much of the Bitcoin supply is at risk due to Quantum Computing and what its composition looks like.

6.04 Million Bitcoin Is Estimated To Be Exposed To Quantum Risk

In a new X article, Glassnode has talked about the part of the Bitcoin supply in circulation that’s exposed to the risk posed by Quantum Computing. “Quantum Computing” refers to an emerging class of computers that can, in theory, be powerful enough to break advanced cryptographic systems. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could be examples of such systems.

While Quantum Computing is something that has been “upcoming” for years now, the technology has made some advancements recently that has made many in the digital asset industry talk about its possible consequences for the sector.

For Bitcoin, the main threat from Quantum Computing involves the supply that’s sitting in vulnerable wallets. “The relevant threshold is whether the public key needed to spend a coin is already visible on-chain,” noted Glassnode.

Based on this criteria, the analytics firm has estimated 6.04 million tokens to be vulnerable to potential Quantum Computing attacks. In terms of the supply percentage, these coins make up for more than 30% of all BTC in existence today.

The supply at risk to the Quantum Computing threat can be further divided into two categories. As Glassnode explained:

The first is structural exposure: outputs whose script type reveals the public key by design. The second is operational exposure: coins that may have been protected initially, but where address reuse, partial spending, or custody behaviour has already made the public key visible while BTC remains tied to it.

Below is a chart that shows how the composition of the Bitcoin supply has changed in terms of these two categories over the years.

As is visible in the graph, a major part of the Bitcoin supply was structurally unsafe during the cryptocurrency’s early years. This is naturally due to the fact that early wallets weren’t as secure as those in use today.

As the years have gone by and investors have adopted better wallet standards, the structurally unsafe supply has shrunken to just 9.6%. A notable 20.6% of the supply, however, is still inside the operationally unsafe category. This part of the supply has actually seen some growth in recent years.

In pure numbers, the operationally unsafe supply includes about 4.12 million BTC right now, as the below chart shows.

Meanwhile, the structurally unsafe supply is made up of 1.92 million BTC, while the safe one includes 13.99 million BTC.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $77,000, down more than 3% in the last seven days.