#Polymarket每日热点

Conclusion: OpenAI will take the lead in entering the capital market ahead of Anthropic.

As of May 21, 2026, this race to become the "epic AI first IPO" has lost its suspense following the concentrated release of a series of key variables.

Three-party IPO race schedule

Company Status Filing Date Listing Date Target Valuation
SpaceX Filed publicly May 20 (S-1) June 12 ~$1.75 trillion
OpenAI About to file As early as May 22 (secret submission) September 1+ trillion USD
Anthropic Preparing Not yet submitted October ~$900 billion - $1 trillion

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1. Clearing the IPO path: OpenAI has removed the "time bomb," while Anthropic is still in a race against time

The biggest obstacle for OpenAI’s listing is the legal compliance controversy caused by its "non-profit to for-profit" structure. Just as the case was brought to trial, a jury in Oakland, California, ruled that Musk’s claims were barred by the three-year statute of limitations, and all demands were dismissed, temporarily ending the case legally. Although Musk has publicly announced plans to appeal to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, after the last key hearing, the judge officially dismissed all valid claims. This outcome has granted OpenAI a valuable legal "innocence period," clearing the way for its compliance process before the IPO application.

In contrast, the generally simpler structure of the "public benefit corporation" Anthropic depends more on funding compliance and corporate governance review rather than litigation delays. Additionally, Anthropic is still pushing a new round of private funding worth up to $30-50 billion in May, with market sources indicating a target of around $900 billion. A funding round nearly equivalent in size to the IPO suggests its listing window and strategic investor arrangements could be artificially extended, providing additional capital but also delaying the formal submission of materials to the SEC.

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2. Securing funds first: SpaceX’s "siphon effect" forces OpenAI to accelerate, while Anthropic faces greater squeeze risk

Goldman Sachs’s publicly available data at this stage shows that SpaceX has set its fundraising target at $75-80 billion, with an estimated valuation of about $1.75 trillion. Its large scale is very likely to cause significant liquidity outflows once it opens in June.

OpenAI’s target schedule—completing the IPO by September and locking in funds before October—is generally viewed by analysts as a "pre-emptive avoidance" strategy. Signaling to investors earlier helps to anchor institutional capital allocation before SpaceX’s siphon effect fully erupts. Meanwhile, Anthropic aims to go public in October, by which time the capital market has already experienced two rounds of intense absorption by SpaceX and OpenAI, significantly shrinking its fundraising space.

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3. Market expectations reverse: from "mutual pessimism" to "instant turnaround," OpenAI has become the mainstream judgment

Besides the substantive changes in variables above, market data trends also clearly reflect a shift in logic.

Before The Wall Street Journal first reported OpenAI’s filing plan, traders on the Kalshi platform believed the probability of OpenAI listing before Anthropic was only 32%, with most funds betting on the latter. However, after detailed disclosures about OpenAI’s approval process and filing progress, the same platform sharply increased the probability of "OpenAI will list first" to 83% in a short period. On Polymarket, the previous prediction that Anthropic had a 69% advantage was completely reversed, with the weight of bets on Anthropic’s victory dropping sharply from its peak to only 20%.

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4. Who starts first: from CFO’s caution to CEO’s bold move, OpenAI leads in organizational will

Behind OpenAI’s rapid internal push is a strategic game of internal management. Reports indicate that CFO Sarah Friar repeatedly emphasized within the company that more time was needed to optimize financial structures. However, CEO Sam Altman’s willingness to "race ahead of Anthropic" ultimately prevailed in this legal clearance and expectation shaping phase, directly driving the company to shift its listing plan from valuation expectations to filing actions within two weeks, breaking previous negative assumptions about internal execution pace.

Compared to OpenAI’s high-pressure drive, Anthropic’s management pace leans more toward structural stability and gradual preparation. It is still negotiating a new round of financing in May, showing a preference for a more complete foundational framework for going public rather than simply chasing time. However, in the "trio IPO timing" formed by SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic this year, market expectations for returns from the first mover have been sharply amplified. Any structural pacing compromise will ultimately constitute a substantial disadvantage in the contest for the listing window.

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Based on the above dimensions, key variable comparisons:

Key comparison dimension | OpenAI | Anthropic
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Filing progress | Filed secretly on May 22 | Not yet submitted
Target listing time | September | October
Recent core obstacle | Musk lawsuit (cleared) | Ongoing negotiations for new funding
Management consensus | CEO-led fast listing | Structural, gradual preparation
Market prediction probability | 83% first to list | 20% first to list

OpenAI will leverage more urgent strategic drives, cleared legal obstacles, and the motivation to lock in investor funds ahead of competitors, to take the lead onto the Nasdaq stage. Although Anthropic has no fundamental shortcoming in fundamentals or technological narrative, the subtle game of timing and market positioning makes it very difficult to compensate for the one-month head start in strategic cost.