4.5% is basically equivalent to a death sentence, unless there's a miracle.

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MeNews
Changes in the outlook for Texas Republican Senate primary: "John Cornyn's victory" prediction probability plummets
ME News Report, May 21 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the event of "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," the probability of "Will John Cornyn win in the 2026 Republican primary" being "Yes" has dropped from 47.5% to 4.5%, a single-day decline of 43.0 percentage points.
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