#SpaceX正式提交IPO申请 On May 20, 2026, SpaceX officially submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on NASDAQ under the stock ticker "SPCX." This not only promises to be the largest IPO in history globally (estimated fundraising of $70-80 billion), but also marks the beginning of a new "capitalized" era for human commercial spaceflight.

Part 1 Triple Value: Why is it worth $1.75 trillion? 1. Starlink—Valuation "Ballast"
Starlink has transitioned from the "money-burning" constellation construction phase to a stable "cash cow" stage. In Q1 2026, it contributed $17.5k in revenue, with an operating profit of $3.26B. Huaxi Securities research reports estimate that Starlink's revenue in 2026 will reach $15.6 billion. Applying a 30x P/S valuation, the target market cap would be approximately $468 billion, forming the core basis of SpaceX's valuation.
2. Space Data Centers—"Second Growth Curve"
Faced with power shortages and heat dissipation limits approaching ground data centers, SpaceX is turning its gaze to space. Musk's vision is: "Launching 1.19B-ton-class satellites annually, each equipped with 100 kW of power, can add 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity each year." If validated, this scenario would fundamentally change the global AI computing landscape and open a trillion-dollar market space.
3. Cost Revolution Based on First Principles
From initially reducing engine costs from $2 million to $200k, to now achieving a marginal cost of $15 million per Falcon 9 reuse, SpaceX's entire supply chain cost control ability gives it a "dimensionality reduction" pricing power in aerospace. This capability is the ultimate barrier against competition.

Part 2 Two Major Tests: Profitability Turning Point and Valuation Bubble
1. Profitability Turning Point: When will massive losses end?
In Q1 2026, net loss was $200k, with an annualized loss expected to exceed $17 billion. The company is in the most money-consuming phase of transforming "rocket capability" into "space AI capability."
Investors should focus on:
Whether Starlink's profitability can continue to improve: Cover more users, increase ARPU, to offset R&D expenses.
When AI business can become self-sustaining: Whether xAI's Grok model can achieve breakthroughs in commercialization to ease R&D investment pressure.
2. Valuation Bubble: Is $1.75 trillion too expensive?
Based on 2025 revenue of $4.28B, the P/S ratio is about 93; based on Q1 2026 annualized revenue of about $18.8 billion, the P/S ratio remains about 93. This valuation far exceeds traditional aerospace companies (like Boeing, Lockheed Martin), and is also much higher than SaaS or tech giants. The supporting point: SpaceX is not just an aerospace company, but a space AI infrastructure company with rockets. If its "space data center" concept can be validated before 2030, its actual market value could far surpass the current valuation.

Part 3 Risk Warnings
1. Technical risks: Starship project, space data centers, asteroid mining all face significant technical uncertainties and high failure risks.
2. Profit pressure: Continuous massive losses in the short term; if capital market confidence shifts, financing difficulties may arise.
3. Governance risks: Musk holds 85.1% of voting rights; the company is a "controlled company," with the board potentially dominated by Musk's personal will, limiting minority shareholders' governance voice.
4. Competition risks: Blue Origin, Amazon Kuiper, etc., are chasing closely; international regulatory battles over LEO satellite spectrum resources are intensifying.
5. Geopolitical risks: SpaceX's business heavily depends on US-China relations, the stability of policies in launch site countries, and cooperation with countries like Russia.

Part 4 Conclusion: When Starship Sets Sail into the Capital Ocean
SpaceX's IPO is a "coming of age" in the history of human commercial spaceflight. It has transformed a near-bankrupt startup into a colossal valuation of $1.75 trillion, blending the idealism of "interstellar civilization" with the realism of the "space economy" in its prospectus.
For investors, investing in SpaceX is essentially investing in a cross-era narrative:
Short to medium term: Watch for Starlink's sustained revenue-generating ability and the arrival of a profitability turning point;
Long term: Bet on whether the "space data center" and "interstellar civilization" can turn the starry ocean into reality.
As Musk states on the front page of the prospectus: "I can't think of anything more exciting than heading to the stars and being among the stars."
When Falcon 9 launches from the pad, when Starlink satellites weave a global network in orbit, and when the first AI computing satellites begin providing computational services in Earth's orbit—we are witnessing not just the growth of a company, but a key step in humanity's transition from "Earth civilization" to "space civilization."
Investing in SpaceX is investing in the future of mankind.$SPCX