37% rebound gets stuck in the same spot, bulls are a bit embarrassed

Moreno indicates that Bitcoin may replay the March 2022 bear market: falling back to $76,000 after being resisted near the 200-day moving average of approximately $82,400; although it has risen about 37% since the 2026 lows, it remains blocked at the same resistance level. The 200-day moving average is seen as the dividing line between a bear market rebound and trend continuation; if it cannot break through, the bear market structure remains. Weakening demand, declines in perpetual contract speculation and spot demand, Coinbase premium remaining persistently negative, and capital has not yet flowed back. If it retraces again, around $70,000 will become a key support level.