Current Price and Market Structure (10:34)

Current Price: 2130 USDT, 24h low fluctuation, range 2090–2180

• Daily: The bearish trend is clear, with moving averages arranged in a bearish alignment. Price is under pressure from below the 50/100-day moving averages, and the ongoing mid-term pullback continues. The 200-day moving average support remains intact, and the bigger trend has not fully turned worse.

• 4-Hour: Low-level fluctuation and base-building are underway. A weak rebound signal appears with MACD bottom divergence, but overhead resistance is dense, limiting the rebound height. Overall, it tracks BTC linkage but remains relatively weak.

Key Price Levels

Resistance Levels

1. First Resistance: 2170–2180 (4-hour midline + strong intraday resistance)

2. Second Resistance: 2220–2250 (Daily Bollinger middle band + a strong resistance zone)

3. Strong Resistance: 2300 (the watershed between bullish and bearish trends)

Support Levels

1. First Support: 2100–2090 (core intraday defense)

2. Second Support: 2050–2040 (strong support zone)

3. Strong Support: 2000 (psychological + key structural support)

Technical Indicators

• MACD: Green bars below the daily zero axis continue, and bearish momentum has not dissipated. Red bars first appear on the 4-hour chart, indicating a weak short-term rebound signal.

• RSI(14): 38, neutral and slightly bearish, not in the oversold range.

• Bollinger Bands: The daily middle band is pressing downward, and the overall bands are converging and weakening.

• Volume: Rebound volume is shrinking, while down volume is expanding. Buying momentum is insufficient.

Today’s Core Trading Strategy

1. Main Strategy: Rebound Short (priority)

• Entry: Short at 2170–2180, where it meets resistance

• Stop Loss: 2210

• Take Profit 1: 2110–2090

• Take Profit 2: 2050

2. Auxiliary Strategy: Try Long at Low Levels (oversold short-term long)

• Entry: Light long position when price stabilizes at 2090–2100

• Stop Loss: 2060

• Take Profit 1: 2160–2170

• Take Profit 2: 2220

3. Breakout Follow-Through Strategy

• Upside Breakout: If it holds above 2220, pull back to 2190 for a long. Stop loss: 2160. Target: 2280–2300.

• Downside Breakout: If it breaks below 2090, rebound to 2110 for a short. Stop loss: 2140. Target: 2050–2000.

Position and Risk Management

• Total Position: ≤30%, strictly control position size in a weak, choppy market

• Single Position: Shorts ≤20%, longs ≤10%

• Always set a stop loss; do not hold through losses, and do not blindly add positions#30年期美债收益率突破5% $ETH

ETH-0.16%

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