2026.5.21 Bitcoin Outlook

Range-bound oscillation within a small interval; in the short term, it may be good to high-sell and low-buy.

$BTC
High-sell: around 780–783; high point at the 786 level to sell, watching 770–760
Low-buy: around 767–770; low point at the 763 level to buy, watching 780–790

Macro: high interest rates + a strong US dollar suppress all risk assets (favoring sell-offs)
Fed rate-cut expectations have almost disappeared; Middle East geopolitics push oil prices higher, and inflation is hard to bring down

Liquidity: spot ETF continuous outflows, leverage liquidations; institutions are biased toward sell-offs in the short term

Spot ETF: six straight weeks of net inflows have ended; last week saw net outflows of about 1 billion dollars. Long liquidations happen frequently within 24 hours. The only thing holding the market up is MSTR continuously accumulating coins, but it can’t offset macro pressure + ETF outflows

Technicals: daily chart breaks down; the larger timeframe turns bearish; the smaller timeframe oscillates

Daily chart: from 82000 down to 76000—three consecutive bearish days, breaking below the 5/10/20-day moving averages; moving averages are aligned bearishly. Previously it was an ascending wedge / an upward channel. Last week it broke below the lower band, and the structure weakened

4-hour: after dropping to 76000, a smaller-scale bearish divergence bottom appears + a MACD golden cross; there’s demand for a short-term rebound. Bollinger Bands are tightening. The range is 76000–78500; neither side can break through quickly

Bearish on the larger cycle: daily breakdown, ETF outflows, high interest rates weighing down; 82000 is the top—any rebound is an opportunity to high-sell

Small interval oscillation: 76000 has strong support, 78200 has strong resistance. There’s no strength on either side—only constant back-and-forth

High-sell and low-buy: trade within the range; once it breaks out, follow the trend. High-sell around 78000, low-buy around 76500; strict stop-loss #RWA总市值突破650亿美元