From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action, a shallow analysis of BTC short-term trend

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour level): Since the high point of 82,448 on May 10, Bitcoin has entered a clear downtrend. The 1-hour wave structure clearly shows a declining feature—wave highs gradually move lower (82,448 → 82,131 → 82,054 → 81,647 → 79,533 → 78,329 → 78,552 → 78,450 → 77,764 → 77,347 → 77,242 → 76,993 → 77,768), and wave lows also move lower simultaneously (80,595 → 80,454 → 80,698 → 79,820 → 78,700 → 78,601 → 77,611 → 76,659 → 76,540 → 76,002 → 76,428 → 76,076 → 76,820 → 77,145). The rebound to 82,054 on May 14 temporarily broke the downtrend line, but subsequent continuous plunges from May 15–18 repeatedly created new lows, confirming the main downtrend remains intact.
Downtrend line: The downward resistance line connecting 82,131 and 81,286 was broken on the rebound of May 14, but then from 82,054 plummeted to 76,002, forming a steeper downward channel. The current price of 77,399 is in the middle of this channel, indicating a clear downtrend but showing signs of rebound.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): Since the high of 82,054, a steep downward channel has formed in the short term, but after hitting a new low of 76,002 on May 18, a subtle change occurred—the lows began to rise (76,002 → 76,428 → 76,076 → 76,820 → 77,145), and highs also started to rise (77,764 → 77,347 → 77,242 → 76,993 → 77,768). A strong rebound occurred on May 20, bouncing from 76,076 to 77,768, with a rebound of over 1,600, suggesting a possible reversal of the short-term trend.
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward, but signs of reversal appear in the short term. The resistance at 78,500 is a short-term resistance level; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term trend confirms a reversal. If the rebound is blocked at 77,768 and the price falls back below 76,500, the downtrend continues.
2. Chan Theory (缠论)
Structure of fractals: On the 15-minute level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.
Top fractals appear at 78,329, 78,552, 78,450, 77,764, 77,347, 77,242, 76,993, 77,768, with 77,768 being the most recent significant top fractal.
Bottom fractals appear at 77,611, 76,659, 76,540, 76,002, 76,428, 76,076, 76,820, 77,145, showing an overall upward trend in lows (76,002 → 76,076 → 76,820 → 77,145), confirming increasing bullish strength.
Pen (Bi) and line segments: From the top fractal at 77,764 to the bottom fractal at 76,002, a very strong downward stroke (purple line) was formed, with a decline of over 1,700. Then from 76,002 bottom fractal to 77,347 top fractal, an upward stroke (blue line) of about 1,300 was formed. Next, from 77,347 top to 76,076 bottom, a downward stroke (dark red line) of about 1,200 was formed. Subsequently, from 76,076 bottom to 77,768 top, a more powerful upward stroke (blue line) of over 1,600 was formed, surpassing the previous downward stroke in strength, indicating aggressive bullish counterattack. Currently, starting from the 77,768 top fractal, the price is constructing a new initial downward stroke.
Central zone: In the 76,500–77,500 range, candlesticks are densely interwoven, forming a central zone in Chan Theory. The current price of 77,399 is near the upper boundary of this zone, indicating a retest after an upward breakout. If the price can hold above the zone’s upper boundary (above 77,500), the breakout is valid, and the outlook is bullish; if it falls back inside the zone, the breakout fails, and the market re-enters consolidation.
Chan conclusion: The downward stroke ended at 76,076, and the upward stroke was very strong and may have ended at 77,768. Currently, the market is in a transition phase between the end of the upward stroke and the beginning of a new downward stroke. Short-term focus on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 77,145; if yes, the downward stroke is likely ending; if the price directly breaks below 76,800, the downward stroke extends, increasing the risk of testing 76,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory (波浪理论)
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the trend since May 10 is divided into waves:
Wave A: 82,448 → 80,454 (rapid decline, about 1,994)
Wave B: 80,454 → 81,286 (weak rebound, about 832, less than 50% of Wave A)
Wave C (first wave): 81,286 → 78,700 (main decline wave, about 2,586, approximately 1.3 times Wave A)
X wave (rebound): 78,700 → 82,054 (strong rebound, about 3,354)
Wave C (second wave): 82,054 → 78,601 (further decline, about 3,453)
Wave C (third wave): 78,601 → 77,611 (further decline, about 990)
Wave C (fourth wave): 77,611 → 76,002 (further decline, about 1,609)
Wave C (fifth wave): 76,002 → 76,076 (further decline, about 74, new low)
Wave C (extension sixth wave): 76,076 → 77,768 (rebound, about 1,692)
The total amplitude of Wave C (from 82,054 to 76,076) has reached about 5,978, far exceeding Wave A’s 1,994, showing an extended wave characteristic. However, the subsequent rebound of about 1,692 indicates strong resistance near 76,000. This is relatively rare in traditional ABC corrections, implying two possibilities:
1. Trend reversal: Wave C has completed the entire correction, and the market is entering a new upward impulsive wave 1, with the current pullback from 77,768 being Wave 2; it should not fall below 76,500.
2. Complex correction: The current rebound is an X wave (connecting wave), with Y waves to follow downward, possibly targeting 75,000–76,000.
Wave conclusion: The current position is at the end of Wave C’s correction, with an unexpectedly strong rebound. The rebound’s strength exceeds expectations, so be alert to a possible trend reversal. If 77,768 is the rebound’s end, subsequent pullbacks may target 76,800–77,000; if it breaks above 78,500, a new upward impulsive wave is confirmed.
4. Volume-Price Relationship (量价关系)
Overall volume-price features: In the past three days, especially during the sharp decline on May 18, there was a significant increase in volume. During the rebound on May 19–20, volume also increased notably, indicating that buyers are gaining strength in the short term, and the market is shifting from a deeply bearish state to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Key volume-price nodes:
- At 14:00 on May 18, a huge bearish candle with a volume of 3.3B appeared, dropping from 77,400 to 76,002, confirming panic selling.
- After 14:00 on May 18, volume gradually decreased, but a volume dry-up near 76,000 confirmed a stabilization.
- Starting from 15:00 on May 20, multiple large bullish candles appeared (volumes of 1.0B, 0.9B, 0.8B), confirming strong bullish reversal, with healthy volume-price coordination.
In the 77,500–77,800 range, volume gradually decreased, showing a consolidation with shrinking volume, indicating reduced willingness to chase high prices, and intense battle between bulls and bears in the 77,300–77,600 zone.
The last 10 candlesticks: From 77,768 oscillating down to 77,399, volume shows alternating shrinking and expanding, indicating market hesitation in the 77,200–77,600 range.
Volume-price conclusion: Volume dried up at the end of Wave C’s decline, but large volume appeared during the rebound, showing strong bullish momentum. However, the current high-level consolidation with shrinking volume suggests increased divergence. If subsequent pullback near 77,000 shows volume dry-up and stabilization, it confirms bullish dominance; if volume surges downward below 76,500, the bears may regain control.
5. Order Flow (订单流)
Volume Profile: The horizontal volume distribution shows the Point of Control (POC) at 76,938 over the past three days, which is the most active trading area, forming the current key value zone.
Current analysis: The price at 77,399 is about 461 above POC, located in the value area above the POC, indicating short-term buyers are regaining advantage, and the market is recovering from a discounted state to a fair valuation zone.
High Volume Nodes (HVN): Several HVN zones are marked (orange semi-transparent background):
- 77,309–77,485: Resistance HVN near the recent high of 77,768
- 76,638–77,026: Support HVN near the POC (which has been broken and now acts as support)
Delta analysis (bottom subgraph): The delta during Wave C’s decline on May 18 remained negative, confirming active selling. Near 76,002, delta turned significantly positive, indicating strong passive buy support. During the rebound on May 19–20, delta remained positive with large values, confirming active buying. Currently, the delta MA12 has risen into positive territory, showing buyers are strengthening and sellers weakening.
Order flow conclusion: Price back above POC favors short-term buyers, market is restoring to fair value. The resistance at 77,500 and 77,800 are key HVNs; if delta remains positive and volume breaks through these levels, further upward movement toward 78,500 is possible. If delta turns negative and price drops below 76,800, the risk of a pullback to POC 76,938 increases.
6. Price Action (价格行为)
Support and resistance levels (orange dashed lines):
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 82,054 (rebound high), 81,647 (previous wave high)
- Key resistance: 78,500 (former support turned resistance), 78,000 (psychological level), 77,768 (recent high)
- Key support: 77,145 (recent low), 76,820 (former low), 76,500 (psychological level), 76,076 (Wave C low), 76,002 (former low)
Candlestick patterns:
- Near 82,448, a double top formed (two close highs at 82,448 and 82,131), with a neckline at 80,800. The price has now sharply broken below the neckline, confirming the double top and exceeding the measured decline target.
- On May 18 at 14:00, a long lower shadow bearish candle appeared at 76,002, indicating strong buy support below.
- From 15:00 on May 20, multiple large bullish candles formed a V-shaped reversal, showing very strong bullish power.
- The current price in the 77,300–77,600 range forms a small oscillation platform, waiting for a direction.
Trend structure:
- Short-term: Running in an upward channel (connecting 76,076 and 76,820 with an upward trendline)
- Medium-term: The double top structure was broken, indicating a trend reversal signal.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the price is in a critical zone between the upper boundary of the upward channel and previous high resistance. 77,768 is a key dividing line: a breakout confirms trend reversal with targets above 78,500; a rejection and pullback test the 77,000–76,800 support zone.
Comprehensive analysis:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but shows short-term reversal signals, with key level at 78,500. Chan Theory shows very strong upward stroke strength, currently at the transition between the end of an upward stroke and the beginning of a new downward stroke, with focus on the bottom fractal near 77,145. Elliott Wave suggests an unexpected rebound after Wave C ends, warning of a possible trend reversal. Volume-price shows a large volume during rebound and shrinking volume at high levels. Order flow indicates price back above POC 76,938, with positive delta. Price action shows double top broken and V-shaped reversal, with 77,768 as a key dividing line.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If the price shows sustained volume dry-up and bottom fractal formation near 77,000–77,200 with delta turning positive, consider light long positions targeting 77,800 → 78,500, with a stop at 76,800.
- Bearish scenario: If the rebound near 77,500–77,800 forms a top fractal with volume decline, confirming the end of the upward stroke and extending the double top measured decline, consider short positions targeting 76,000, with a stop at 78,000.
Current state: At 77,399, in a fierce battle zone with decreasing volume, wait for a clear direction before entering. In the 77,000–77,600 range, consider light high–low trading with strict stop-losses.