#Gate广场披萨节 The most dangerous blind spot in the current market lies in the following two points being simultaneously ignored by most participants:

First, although the $657 million long liquidations on May 18-19 created the conditions for a "forced sell-off bottom" on a technical level, the total open interest in BTC contracts across the market remains around $61.6 billion, which means that the existing long leverage still has enough scale to trigger chain liquidations during a secondary decline;
Second, the core assumption behind most bullish logic at present is that "ETF weekly net outflows are a temporary correction rather than a trend reversal." The reflexive collapse of this assumption would occur under what conditions: if ETF net outflows continue to expand over the next two trading days to more than $2 billion per week, and the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks through 4.75% (currently only about 8 basis points away), then institutional re-pricing of BTC as a "high-beta macro asset rather than a store of value" will accelerate, and the negative correlation between BTC/USD and real interest rates will be reactivated and dominate the trend. The support at the April lows of $74,500-$75,000 will be tested. If $74,500 is effectively broken, the chain reaction triggered will be: the currently held ETF arbitrage positions and basis trading structures will be forcibly activated, causing BTC to fall to $72,000-$73,000 without any active on-chain selling.
The earliest forward-looking falsification indicator of this change is: if on May 21 (today), the 10-year US Treasury yield closes below 4.60%, and ETF net inflows turn positive (greater than $100 million) on the same day, then the macro trigger conditions required for the secondary decline will be temporarily invalidated, and the probability of BTC rebuilding support in the $76,000-$77,000 range will significantly increase.