Is the Federal Reserve's monitoring tool more accurate than on-chain data?

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MeNews
The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%.
ME News report: On May 21 (UTC+8), according to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 97.3%, with a 2.7% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 87.2%, with a 2.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. (Source: Jin10)
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