Shouchuang Futures: Cost boost, PTA futures continue to rebound

On the supply side, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million-ton PTA plant reduced its load to 50% starting mid-March; Taiwan Chemical Xingye's 1.5 million-ton plant began maintenance on May 10; Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 million-ton plant reduced output by 30% starting April 2; Ingevity's 1.1 million-ton plant plans to undergo maintenance on April 19; Sanfangxiang's 3.2 million-ton plant shut down starting April 22; Jiatong Energy's 3 million-ton plant plans maintenance in late May; Hengli's one 2.2 million-ton unit will undergo maintenance starting April 20, and another 2.5 million-ton unit will start maintenance in late April; Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million-ton plant will undergo 60 days of maintenance starting April 15. This week, domestic PTA load slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points week-on-week. PTA social inventory significantly decreased by 190k tons week-on-week. It is expected that PTA will continue to destock from May to June.

On the demand side, downstream filament manufacturers continue to cut production to maintain prices, with the reduction ratio increasing to 30% from April 20, lasting until the end of Q2. This week, polyester load remained stable week-on-week.

Viewpoint: Overall PTA operating rates are relatively low, and the industry continues to destock. Crude oil and PX prices rebounded sharply, and under cost-driven factors, short-term PTA futures are expected to fluctuate strongly with a slight upward trend. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, crude oil prices, and plant operation changes. (First Capital Futures)