Managing a $13.6 billion fund! Why is the 24-year-old Wall Street AI investment prodigy massively shorting NVIDIA?

Former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner serves as Chief Investment Officer of the hedge fund Situational Awareness LP, which has released its latest 13F report, revealing a massive short position in semiconductor stocks like Nvidia, and long positions in energy and mining companies.

Former OpenAI researcher hedge fund, heavily shorting Nvidia stock

Managed by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, the hedge fund Situational Awareness LP recently disclosed its Q1 2026 13F holdings (note), showing assets under management reaching $13.6 billion, more than doubling from the previously disclosed $5.5 billion, and actively shorting semiconductor ETFs and stocks such as Nvidia.

According to Business Insider, Situational Awareness LP has heavily bought put options (bearish options) to short AI hardware stocks. Its largest position is shorting the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), valued at about $2 billion.

List of some put option holdings of Situational Awareness LP

• Nvidia: $1.56 billion
• Oracle: $1.07 billion
• Broadcom: $1 billion
• AMD: $969.2 million
• TSMC: $535.1 million, also holding call options worth $354 million
• ASML: $494.1 million
• Intel: $159.1 million

List of some call option holdings of Situational Awareness LP

• SanDisk (flash memory company): $388.8 million
• CoreWeave (AI cloud computing company): $140.6 million
• CleanSpark (Bitcoin miner): $104.5 million
• Bloom Energy (renewable energy company): $55.3 million

Image source: whalewisdom Latest 13F holdings report of Situational Awareness LP

Image source: whalewisdom Latest 13F holdings report of Situational Awareness LP

Note: The 13F report is a requirement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Institutions managing over $100 million must file quarterly holdings reports, revealing their holdings of U.S. listed stocks and options.

Why short AI semiconductors and shift to mining companies?

Situational Awareness LP not only heavily shorts semiconductor chip manufacturers but also significantly increases long positions in cryptocurrency miners and AI cloud computing companies.

Fitech Journal reports that this strategy is closely related to Aschenbrenner’s 2024 thesis. He predicts artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be achieved by 2027. As AI models become more advanced, future bottlenecks will shift to the physical limits of power grids and data centers, and computational capacity will no longer be the sole focus.

Therefore, the fund avoids potential risks associated with chip manufacturing and AI model development, establishing large-scale short positions in semiconductors.

Meanwhile, the fund shifts its long positions and call options toward energy companies and actively transforms holdings in crypto miners like CleanSpark and Riot Platforms, which are expanding AI data center operations. Because these companies have large-scale power infrastructure, investing in them allows direct profit from AI infrastructure expansion.

Further reading:
24-year-old fund manager’s annual return is 24 times! His AI portfolio targets the “most scarce resource”

Aschenbrenner’s Accurate Capture of AGI Expectations

At just 24 years old, Aschenbrenner is often hailed as a “genius” by the media, graduating first from Columbia University at age 19. He previously worked at the now-bankrupt FTX Foundation and later joined OpenAI’s super alignment team as a researcher.

After being dismissed in April 2024, he published a sensational AI manifesto titled “Situational Awareness: The Next Decade” and founded a hedge fund. As a young man in his twenties with little traditional Wall Street experience, he convinced major Silicon Valley figures like the Stripe founders and former Meta AI head Nat Friedman to invest in him through his arguments.

Image source: Excerpt from the viral AI manifesto “Situational Awareness: The Next Decade”

His hedge fund, Situational Awareness LP, has rapidly expanded its assets under management. Veteran hedge fund investors are amazed, saying Aschenbrenner’s understanding of AI public market investments “is more mature than anyone they’ve spoken to.”

Some former OpenAI colleagues and researchers question whether Aschenbrenner lacks financial management experience, merely packaging AI security threats as marketing to attract funds, and worry that his extreme views may intensify US-China tech Cold War sentiments.

However, Aschenbrenner’s strength lies in his precise grasp of market expectations for AGI and geopolitical anxieties, successfully turning these into substantial financial influence.

Now, the market is closely watching this extreme strategy of shorting semiconductors and betting on power infrastructure, wondering whether it will yield rich rewards or just be a bubble illusion.

Further reading:
The prototype of the big short: AI hype resembles the dot-com bubble! Reduce tech stock holdings; short selling is not recommended