Why watch 🈳

1. Currently, oil prices are the biggest bearish factor. If prices stay above $110, the market will worry about inflation re-accelerating, and risk assets like Bitcoin and U.S. stocks will continue to be under pressure.
Iran's Hormuz → Rising oil prices → Increased inflation expectations → Rising U.S. Treasury yields → Falling risk assets
2. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has already reached 5.13%. The higher the yield, the more funds tend to flow into bonds, and the valuation of risk assets is further pressured.
Along with several days of ETF net inflows, without buying support for prices, if U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, Bitcoin will be more easily sold off.
3. Last week's CPI and PPI data were overheated, and the market will reassess the holding costs of risk assets brought by high interest rates.
4. U.S. stocks are overheated and need to cool down, and they are highly correlated with Bitcoin.
5. The U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen, and global liquidity will tighten further, putting continued pressure on Bitcoin.
Strong dollar + strong U.S. debt yields = weak Bitcoin/risk assets
6. This week's FOMC minutes, if they show the Federal Reserve is more concerned about inflation and more cautious about rate cuts, will undoubtedly be a new bearish signal.
What is the market afraid of? High oil prices, hot inflation, no rate cuts.
7. Regarding geopolitical issues, Trump discussed preparing for another airstrike on Iran with Israel over the weekend. Oil prices will continue to surge, and Bitcoin will initially decline as a risk asset.
Summary of current bearish factors: oil prices keep rising + U.S. Treasury yields continue to go up + U.S. stocks cool down + ETF outflows continue.