I’ve been thinking lately about why the spot price of gold has surged so aggressively this time. On the surface, it seems to be driven by well-worn factors like rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks—but if it were only those, gold should have already finished its run. I believe the real underlying logic is that cracks are starting to appear in the global credit system.

The moment in 2022 was crucial. The incident involving frozen foreign-exchange reserves shook a basic consensus—that dollar assets were considered absolutely safe. Since then, the actions of central banks around the world have changed. According to data from the World Gold Council, last year global central banks net purchased more than 1,200 tons of gold, breaking 1,000 tons for the fourth consecutive year. At the same time, 76% of central banks expect to increase their gold allocation over the next five years while reducing their dollar reserves. This is not short-term hype; it’s a long-term structural shift.

There are also several push factors behind gold spot prices continuing to climb that can’t be ignored. The de-dollarization trend is accelerating, the U.S. fiscal deficit is widening, and frequent changes in tariff policies are creating uncertainty. Every time expectations of Fed rate cuts emerge, gold benefits because the opportunity cost of holding gold declines. Geopolitical risk hasn’t eased either. Even as global economic growth slows and debt reaches record highs, these factors make safe-haven assets even more attractive.

To be honest, can you still buy gold now? My view is that there may be opportunities, but you must think clearly about your positioning. If you’re a short-term trader, gold’s volatility really does offer plenty of chances—especially around the release of U.S. economic data. But beginners should not blindly follow the crowd. Start with a small amount to test the waters and set strict stop-losses. Gold’s average annual swing is 19.4%, larger than the S&P 500, so you need to be psychologically prepared.

If you’re a long-term allocation investor, gold can serve as a diversification tool within an investment portfolio, but you should be prepared to withstand a pullback of more than 20%. Experienced investors may consider combining long and short approaches: hold the core position long term, and use volatility to execute short-term trades with the satellite allocation. Most importantly, don’t put all your net worth into gold—diversification is the way to go.

Based on institutional forecasts, gold overall is biased toward the bullish side in 2026. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target price to 5,700 dollars. JPMorgan expects it to reach 6,300 dollars in Q4. UBS gives a full-year average price of 5,000 dollars. In an optimistic scenario—if geopolitical crises escalate or the dollar depreciates significantly—gold could even have the potential to reach 6,500 to 7,200 dollars. But all these forecasts have a premise: the scenario of an economic slowdown and falling interest rates must hold.

However, be aware that gold’s rally has never been a straight line. Earlier this year, there was a sharp 18% pullback due to adjustments to policy expectations by the Federal Reserve, accompanied by intense volatility. So the key is not chasing headlines, but building a clear analytical framework to monitor market changes. The trend of central banks continuously buying gold hasn’t truly stopped since the breakout in 2022. This is the fundamental reason why the bottom of gold prices keeps being built higher. As long as factors like sticky inflation, mounting debt pressure, and heightened geopolitical tensions still exist, this trend won’t suddenly disappear.

In the end, gold spot prices move with considerable volatility, but the long-term bullish logic is very clear. Rather than watching price up and down every day, think through whether you’re doing short-term trading or long-term allocation, and then execute according to your plan—only then won’t you be carried away by market sentiment.