I just整理了一份关于人民币汇率的观察笔记，发现这两年的走势确实值得关注。

From 2022 onwards, the depreciation cycle seems to be truly coming to an end. Remember that wave in 2022, when the US dollar against the RMB soared from 6.35 all the way above 7.25, driven by aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, a soaring dollar index, and domestic economic pressures, which put significant pressure on the RMB. But after entering 2025, the situation started to reverse.

In the first five months of this year, the dollar index plummeted 9%, marking the worst start to a year on record. Meanwhile, the RMB against the US dollar showed a clear appreciation trend. By the end of November, the RMB even broke through 7.08, reaching a nearly one-year high. The logic behind this is quite clear: easing US-China trade relations, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, and China's strong export resilience.

Looking at predictions from international investment banks, you can sense the market's optimism. Deutsche Bank believes the RMB is entering a long-term appreciation cycle, estimating it could reach 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further appreciate to 6.7 by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2026, the dollar index might fall back to 89, which could correspond to an RMB/USD exchange rate of around 7.05. Goldman Sachs is even more aggressive, believing the real effective exchange rate of the RMB is undervalued by 12%, and based on progress in US-China negotiations and the current undervaluation, expects the RMB to appreciate to 7.0 against the dollar in the future.

But to judge whether this trend can continue, we need to look at several key variables. First is the trend of the dollar index, which directly determines the RMB's appreciation potential. Second is the progress of US-China negotiations; tariffs remain a significant variable—if negotiations ease, the RMB will be supported; if tensions escalate, the RMB will face depreciation pressure. Third is the Federal Reserve's policy stance—rate cuts accelerate are beneficial for the RMB, but if inflation remains high and the Fed slows down rate cuts, the dollar will strengthen again.

From China's internal perspective, the People's Bank of China tends to maintain an accommodative monetary policy, which usually exerts downward pressure on the RMB. However, if loose monetary policy is combined with stronger fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy, it could be beneficial for the RMB in the long run. Additionally, the internationalization of the RMB is progressing, with increased use in global trade settlements, providing long-term support for RMB stability.

To grasp the direction of USD exchange rate forecasts, it’s crucial to monitor several indicators. First, the central bank’s monetary policy stance—rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions usually mean increased money supply, which weakens the RMB; conversely, rate hikes and reserve ratio increases tend to push the RMB higher. Second, economic data such as GDP, PMI, CPI—improving economic indicators attract foreign investment, naturally boosting RMB demand. Third, the dollar index itself is the most direct influencing factor. Fourth, official guidance on the exchange rate—People’s Bank of China’s use of the midpoint price model with counter-cyclical factors has a noticeable short-term impact.

For investors interested in participating, they can open foreign exchange accounts through commercial banks or choose reputable forex broker platforms. Many platforms support two-way trading and leverage tools, meaning profits can be made not only from price increases but also from correct trend judgments on price declines. Of course, leverage is a double-edged sword and should be used prudently according to one’s risk tolerance.

Overall, as China enters a loose monetary policy cycle, the USD/RMB exchange rate has shown a relatively clear trend. Based on historical experience, such cycles can last quite a long time. By understanding and monitoring these key factors influencing the RMB exchange rate, investors can significantly improve their decision-making accuracy. The forex market is primarily macro-driven, with transparent data from all countries, and the large trading volume with two-way trading makes it relatively fair for ordinary investors.