I have been paying close attention to the international gold market recently and found that the logic behind this round of gold price increases is much more complex than most people think. Many are still debating whether it's inflation or interest rate cuts, but there are deeper forces at play.

I noticed an interesting phenomenon: since 2022, central banks have not truly stopped buying gold. According to data from the World Gold Council, global central bank net gold purchases exceeded 1,200 tons in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year surpassing 1,000 tons. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks believe they will increase their gold holdings over the next five years, while also expecting the dollar reserve ratio to decline. This is not short-term speculation but a long-term questioning of the dollar system by various countries.

Why is this happening? Essentially, it’s because the credibility of the dollar system has cracked. The foreign exchange reserve freeze event in 2022 completely shook the assumption that sovereign assets are invulnerable. Gold has become the only asset that cannot be unilaterally frozen and does not rely on any sovereign credit. Under this logic, the rise in the international gold market becomes easier to understand.

Of course, short-term volatility still has many triggers. Uncertainty in tariff policies, expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks—all can trigger intense fluctuations. In 2025, due to Fed policy adjustments, there was a 10-15% correction, and earlier this year, there was a sharp 18% pullback. But interestingly, every time prices fall, central banks start buying. The bottom keeps rising higher, which is characteristic of a bull market.

Regarding future trends, there is indeed a wide divergence among institutional forecasts. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target to $5,700, JPMorgan is more aggressive, expecting $6,300 in Q4, and Citibank anticipates $5,800 in the second half of the year. Optimistically, some even see $6,000 to $6,500. But I personally think that the international gold market in 2026 will resemble a high-level oscillation with an upward bias, rather than a continuous unstoppable rise.

From an investment perspective, there is still room to participate, but it depends on your positioning. If you are a short-term trader, the volatility around U.S. market data releases indeed offers many opportunities, but strict stop-loss settings are necessary. If you are a beginner, do not blindly chase highs—start with small capital to test the waters. Long-term investors should be mentally prepared: gold’s annual average volatility is 19.4%, which is not less than stocks, and it can double or halve in the middle.

My view is that the long-term trend of continuous central bank buying will not disappear because inflation remains sticky, debt pressures persist, and geopolitical tensions continue. But the key is to have a systematic monitoring approach rather than follow news blindly. Gold’s upward momentum has never been a straight line; understanding the driving logic is essential to find your rhythm amid the fluctuations of the international gold market.