I just noticed that this wave of copper prices is indeed quite interesting. Over the past few months, copper has been fluctuating between $12,000 and $13,000 per ton, with a gain of over 50% in 2025. Now entering 2026, everyone is asking one question: Can the copper bull market continue?

Actually, if you look closely at the fundamentals, copper is indeed a bit different. It’s called the “Copper Doctor” because its price trend can reflect the health of the global economy. Gold mainly serves as a hedge, silver is half industrial and half safe haven, but copper is different—99% of its demand is industrial. Electric vehicles, AI data centers, green energy grids all depend on it. The surge in copper prices in 2025 was due to explosive global electrification and digitalization demand, but supply simply cannot keep up.

From the data, electric vehicle sales will grow 30% in 2025, with each EV using four times the copper of traditional cars. AI data centers are expanding explosively, with each large data center consuming thousands of tons of copper. Solar and wind power installations continue to increase, creating huge demand for grid upgrades. On the supply side, Chile and Peru, the two largest copper-producing countries, face declining ore grades and social protests; Congo’s new mine development is delayed, and it takes an average of 16.5 years from copper mine to production. This is why the market is continuously short of copper now.

According to the latest estimates, J.P. Morgan expects an average of about $12,500 per ton in 2026, while Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic, predicting stable prices of $12,000 in three months, $13,000 in six months, and up to $15,000 in twelve months. UBS forecasts an average copper price of $12,800 in 2026 and points out that the supply gap could expand to over 400k tons in the next 6 to 12 months. These institutions’ consensus is generally bullish, expecting a 20-50% increase.

Honestly, the logic behind this market trend is somewhat similar to the long-term patterns of copper prices over the past 100 years. Copper prices are not a random walk but show a grand rhythm of 10 to 20 years, known as a super cycle. Looking back, copper experienced three major bull markets: in the 1900s electrification cycle, it rose tenfold; in the 1960s post-war industrialization cycle, it increased fivefold; and in the 2000s China urbanization cycle, it rose another tenfold. Now, the market generally believes that the fourth super cycle has begun, driven by green energy and AI. S&P Global predicts global copper demand will soar from the current 28 million tons to 42 million tons by 2040.

But note that super cycles are not straight upward. Even during China’s 2000-2011 cycle, copper prices halved in 2008. Corrections of 20% to 40% are common, usually caused by macroeconomic recessions or short-term inventory releases. In the short term, copper prices staying above $12,000 are a strong trend, but if they retreat to around $11,000, that’s an excellent entry point.

Let me briefly outline the key factors affecting copper prices. On the supply-demand fundamentals, green energy and electric vehicles are astonishing in their copper appetite—about 4 million tons in 2024, and another 700k tons in 2025. AI data centers’ power demand is ten times that of traditional data centers, requiring massive copper cooling systems and power distribution facilities. On the policy front, the shadow of Trump 2.0 tariffs looms, with expectations that the US may announce tariffs by mid-2026, causing many traders to rush copper into US warehouses at the start of the year, artificially creating shortages elsewhere. China’s policies remain the biggest variable—if fiscal stimulus increases, infrastructure and manufacturing demand will explode immediately. On the macro side, whether the Fed continues to cut interest rates and the strength of the dollar will also influence copper prices.

From 2026 to 2030, if electrification and AI waves accelerate, copper prices may face even larger structural demand. But risks include a global economic slowdown or breakthroughs in alternative materials. Many infrastructure projects could be delayed, and copper prices might retreat quickly after reaching new highs.

Regarding how to invest in copper, there are mainly a few options. Futures are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with standard contracts of 25,000 pounds, allowing leverage but requiring physical delivery, which is more demanding. CFDs allow entry with less margin, have lower minimum trading units, no expiration date, and are traded 24/5, making them more flexible for beginners or small investors. There are also copper-related ETFs and stocks of copper mining companies, which are relatively lower risk and suitable for long-term investment.

In summary, copper, as a barometer of the global economy, has a bright demand outlook under the green energy transition and AI infrastructure wave. As electrification and AI accelerate, copper could see real structural opportunities in the coming years. But investing still requires caution and good risk management, because even super cycles can have corrections. Now is a good time to pay attention to the copper market and choose suitable investment methods based on your risk tolerance.