U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 7.86M barrels for the week ending May 15, far exceeding the expected decline of 2.94M barrels, with the previous value at a decrease of 4.31M barrels. SPR stockpiles saw the largest decline in history. According to PolyBeats/Polymarket predictions, the probabilities of WTI closing at $110, $120, and $130 per day this month are 43%, 19%, and 8%, respectively.

MarsBitNews

2026-05-20 15:22:03

Abstract generation in progress

Mars Finance News, on May 20, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 15 decreased by 7.86M barrels, compared to an expected decrease of 2.94M barrels and a previous decrease of 4.31M barrels. Last week, U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories experienced the largest decline in history.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that "WTI crude oil closing price in a single day this month" hits $110 is 43%, the probability of hitting $120 is 19%, and the probability of hitting $130 is 8%.

POLYMARKET14.15%

CL-4.47%

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PerpPessimist

· 13h ago

-786 vs expected -294, this expectation management is a mess

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Don’tRushToDoubleItYet.

· 13h ago

Is the PolyBeats prediction model recently accurate? Please give a brief explanation, bro.

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GateUser-23bf1070

· 13h ago

Crude oil inventories + geopolitical double whammy, I’m familiar with this oil price script

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MoonlightLiquidationLine

· 13h ago

8% chance to reach 130, what are the odds, want to go all-in but afraid of being buried

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GateUser-e4fb1fbe

· 13h ago

Previous value -430 was already fierce enough, this week it dropped directly to -786, bulls woke up laughing

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ColdLightNftCabinet

· 13h ago

Is the probability 43%? Polymarket's data is a bit aggressive; I'll bet on 105 first.

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ViewingBullAndBearMarketsFromA

· 13h ago

SPR has experienced its largest decline in history, this is really just stockpiling to support it.

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U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories saw the largest weekly decline on record last week

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