Recently, I started analyzing what really happened with the dollar in Mexico during 2024 and 2025, and honestly, there are interesting patterns that many overlooked. The USD/MXN is not just a number on a screen; it’s a direct reflection of what’s happening in both economies, and when the dollar rose in Mexico in 2024 was a question everyone asked, but the true story is more complex.

Let’s start with the basics. The pair fluctuated quite a bit around 19.88-20 pesos per dollar during that period, mainly driven by two things: political volatility in the United States with the November elections, and interest rate movements in both countries. Trump was leading in the polls, and his protectionist rhetoric (especially the 200% tariff on Mexican vehicles) sent clear signals to the market: seek safety in dollars.

Mexico faced its own pressures. Claudia Sheinbaum’s judicial reform raised doubts about institutional stability, weakening confidence in the peso. Meanwhile, Banxico was in rate-cutting mode (lowered from 10.50% in September 2024), which typically weakens a currency because it makes local assets less attractive.

From a fundamental perspective, Mexico’s economic growth looked slow: the IMF and BBVA Research projected just 1.0-1.3% for 2025, well below the 2.1% expected in the United States. This naturally strengthens the dollar. The Federal Reserve was also lowering rates, but more cautiously and from a higher level, keeping dollar yields competitive.

Technically, when the dollar rose in Mexico in 2024, the data responded: Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility with bullish impulses, the RSI at 53 indicated neutrality (no oversold or overbought signals), and the RVI at 34.60 suggested a short-term bearish bias. Translated into real language: sideways movements with possible corrections, but no clear short-term trend.

Forecasts from different sources varied. Longforecast pointed to 21.5 in January 2025 and 22.63 in December. CoinCodex was more aggressive with 25.83 by year-end. Gov Capital, Wallet Investor, and Tradersunion were more moderate, estimating ranges between 19-20. This variability precisely reflects what happened: the market lacked clarity.

Historically, USD/MXN has always been volatile. The 1980 debt crisis, NAFTA in 1990, the oil shocks of 2014-2015, the 2008 crisis, the 2016 and 2020 elections, the pandemic... each event left its mark. Mexico is vulnerable because it depends on oil, U.S. demand, and political stability. The dollar is the safe haven when everything gets complicated.

What really matters for investors is understanding the drivers: if the Federal Reserve keeps rates high, the dollar strengthens. If Banxico keeps cutting, the peso weakens. If oil prices fall, Mexico suffers more. If political instability arises in either country, money seeks safety in dollars.

For those wanting to operate on this, options were multiple: direct Forex trading, specialized currency funds, derivatives like futures and options, or CFDs on regulated platforms. The key was to identify moments of high liquidity, which typically coincide with Fed announcements, important economic reports, or political events.

Looking back from 2026, it’s clear that those who understood the dynamics of interest rates and monetary policy won. The dollar remained strong for much of the period because Mexico’s economic prospects remained weak and political uncertainty didn’t help. The peso faced persistent pressure, exactly as technical indicators suggested.

The lesson: when analyzing USD/MXN or any currency pair, don’t just rely on technical numbers. Understand what’s happening with interest rates, inflation, political stability, and commodity prices. Those are the real drivers. And yes, when the dollar rose in Mexico in 2024 was a valid question, but the real answer was: it depends on whether you trust the peso or prefer the safety of the dollar. Most chose the latter.