Recently, Bitcoin's price movement has been quite interesting, reaching nearly $77,000 at one point a while ago, but then quickly pulling back. I looked at data from the derivatives market and found that this rally was mainly driven by traders closing out their previous short positions. Simply put, everyone had bought a bunch of put options around $55,000 to $60,000 to hedge risk, and now that these options are about to expire, traders are gradually closing their positions. Market makers, in order to rebalance their risk exposure, started buying Bitcoin, which pushed the price up rapidly.

But there's a problem—although Bitcoin broke through $75,000, there wasn't a large-scale surge in bullish options buying. According to analysis from 10x Research, this indicates that the rise was more driven by passive hedge unwinding rather than new long positions being actively opened. I think this reflects that market participants are still somewhat cautious about the future trend. Moreover, Bitcoin still couldn't hold above $74,400, a key resistance level since last year, suggesting there is still short-term pressure.

Now, the market's focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve. This week, PPI and unemployment data will be released, which could influence the Fed's stance on interest rates. At the same time, I also noticed that recently, Bitcoin has been performing relatively independently, with stocks and gold remaining weak, but Bitcoin actually strengthening. Some analysts suggest this might be a sign that the market is re-evaluating Bitcoin's value as a geopolitical safe-haven asset. Overall, whether Bitcoin can continue to rise in the short term still depends heavily on macroeconomic data and policy signals.