Recently, I have been following the movements of the Japanese Yen against the Thai Baht, and I would say that the situation in 2025-2026 is quite interesting. A friend who tattoos asked why the Yen keeps depreciating, so I decided to study this topic more thoroughly.

In fact, the Yen is not just a matter for Japan alone. It is related to the global economy because the Yen is a currency with high trading volume in the foreign exchange market, and it is also a safe-haven asset that investors turn to when markets are risky.

The reasons behind the Yen's depreciation are several. First, the Bank of Japan continues to implement a more accommodative monetary policy than other central banks, while the Fed and the European Central Bank are raising interest rates. Japan still maintains negative interest rates. This interest rate differential is what causes money to flow out of the Yen. Second, Japan's economy grows more slowly than other countries, reducing demand for Yen.

The chart shows that JPY/THB has decreased by more than 30% over the past ten years, especially since 2020. By late 2024 and early 2025, the Yen moved close to its historic low at 0.2150 Baht per Yen. Interestingly, when the Bank of Japan started reducing bond purchases from 9 trillion Yen to 7.5 trillion Yen, the Yen began to recover slightly to 0.2176.

What to watch is the Bank of Japan's policy measures. If they seriously move away from easing policies, the Yen could strengthen to test the 0.2300 level. If they slow down, the Yen might test new lows below 0.2100.

For 2026, the overall outlook is not very clear. The chart shows a pattern of lows at 0.2150. If this support holds, the Yen could gradually strengthen to 0.2300-0.2400. But if it cannot sustain this level, it might fall below 0.2100.

Factors to monitor include the interest rate differentials between countries, the Bank of Japan's policy stance, and Japanese investors' capital movements. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in Asia could increase demand for the Yen as a regional safe-haven asset.

In summary, the Yen is a key indicator reflecting Japan's economic status and its relationship with the global economy. 2025-2026 could be a turning point. Those interested in trading or investing in the forex market should closely follow the charts and news about Japan's policies.