I have been closely watching the US dollar trend forecasts recently, and I find that market opinions on the dollar's future direction keep swinging back and forth. This actually reflects a very interesting phenomenon.

Looking back at past situations can help us understand. From the 2008 financial crisis to the 2020 pandemic, and then to the aggressive rate hikes in 2022, the dollar's performance has varied each time. But the common point is that the dollar is never simply judged by "rate hikes or cuts," but rather by considering policy, economic data, and global risk sentiment together.

Here's the current situation. In the first half of 2026, non-farm employment has remained strong, and inflation can't be brought down, which has led the market to push back expectations for rate cuts repeatedly. Many institutions now believe in a "slow, late, and small" rate cut path, with some even thinking that there may be no rate cuts for the entire year and that a turnaround might not come until 2027. But there's a key point— the Federal Reserve's current hawkish stance is actually data-driven, not the start of a new rate hike cycle. As long as employment and inflation begin to slow, policy could still shift toward easing.

Based on this situation, my forecast for the dollar's trend is that, over the next year, the dollar is more likely to fluctuate within a high range and weaken slightly, rather than sharply depreciate across the board. But this doesn't mean the dollar will keep falling forever, because as long as financial risks or geopolitical conflicts emerge globally, capital will still flow back into the dollar, the safest haven asset.

At the same time, it's important to note that the dollar index isn't just about the US itself. If Europe slows down its rate cuts or Japan continues its easing, the dollar could remain resilient due to relative interest rate differentials. That's why we can't just focus on the dollar index; we also need to watch the relative performance of major currency pairs.

Regarding de-dollarization, it is indeed a long-term trend, but frankly, it's a slow process measured in "years." Central banks are indeed reducing holdings of US Treasuries and increasing gold reserves, but the dollar's dominant position in global reserves and settlement systems is still hard to replace in the short term. Forecasting the dollar's trend requires considering these structural factors, but there's no need to panic excessively.

In reality, the dollar's trend forecast has a significant impact on our investments. When the dollar weakens, gold usually benefits because gold priced in dollars becomes cheaper; US stocks may become less attractive, and capital might flow into Europe or emerging markets; cryptocurrencies often see buying interest as investors look for assets to hedge against inflation.

For the New Taiwan dollar, during the dollar rate cut cycle, the TWD should appreciate, but the extent will be limited because Taiwan's economic structure is complex, and the central bank has its own considerations. As for the Japanese yen, with Japan ending its ultra-low interest rate policy, the yen has a higher chance of strengthening, and USD/JPY might depreciate. The euro is relatively stronger than the dollar, but Europe's economy isn't very optimistic either, so the dollar isn't likely to depreciate sharply.

If you want to profit from dollar trend forecasts, in the short term, you can focus on data like CPI, non-farm employment, and FOMC meetings, as each announcement can trigger short-term volatility. In the medium term, using support and resistance levels of the dollar index combined with differences in central bank policies can help identify trading opportunities. For the long term, diversifying risk with gold, forex, and other assets is more prudent, especially when the dollar is oscillating at high levels or weakening.

Overall, there is no absolute answer to predicting the dollar's trend, but once you understand these logics, you'll be better able to see what the market is thinking and adjust your asset allocation accordingly.