Lately, I've been obsessively watching the market to the point of annoyance. To be honest, many times it's not that you're so smart on the chain, but when interest rates change, everyone's risk appetite immediately shrinks, and positions follow suit. When interest rates are high, sitting on cash feels good; when market sentiment cools down, even the hottest "narrative" on the chain can easily fizzle out. Conversely, when liquidity is loose, people dare to put money into high-volatility assets, and even someone like me who only watches gas can feel the congestion come back.

Airdrop season is also quite interesting. Task platforms are doing anti-witch hunts + point systems, and the degenerate gamblers are competing like clocking in at work. When macro tightens, the competition intensifies: they dare not hold heavy positions, so they go for "low-cost hope." As a result, many people rack their brains just to save a few dollars in fees, only to end up being educated by the packing order... I now try to separate my positions from my expectations: if I want to gamble, I acknowledge the volatility; if I want stability, I don't force myself to be brave.

What I've learned isn't techniques, but to first see if the money is willing to take risks, then decide how much I want to risk myself.