EURCNH (Euro to Offshore Renminbi) — Main Monetary Policy Line: Clear Bearish Alignment

EURCNH is in a clearly bearish trend. Market data shows the current real-time quote at approximately 7.9034. The day’s opening was 7.91, the high reached 7.92, and the low touched 7.90. Technically, the exchange rate is forming three consecutive daily declines and has remained below the 5-day moving average of 7.9147 and the 30-day moving average of 7.9877, indicating a clear bearish alignment. The MACD is forming a dead cross below the zero axis, and the green histogram momentum is gradually strengthening. The RSI has fallen to around 38, nearing the oversold zone, but has not yet formed a bottom divergence signal.

On the fundamentals, Europe faces pressure on the European Central Bank’s June rate-cut expectations (the market-implied probability of a rate cut is about 70%), combined with the reality that the EU’s economic conditions are constrained by high energy costs and weak trade conditions, leaving medium-term support relatively weak. On the offshore renminbi side, it is comparatively more resilient: China’s April manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.1, and the expansion of the external trade surplus provides a strong base for keeping the renminbi exchange rate resilient. In the short term, 7.9000 is the key psychological support level. If this level is effectively broken, the next technical support is around 7.8800. Overhead resistance is concentrated near 7.9437.

EURCNH bearish trend — ECB rate cut expectations + RMB resilience → Euro weaker; resistance at 7.9437, support at 7.9000

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