I’ve recently been looking at the RMB exchange rate and noticed some pretty interesting changes.

Starting in the second half of 2025, the USD-to-RMB exchange rate trend has clearly been different. The RMB, which had been depreciating for three straight years, now seems to be turning around. Especially in November last year, the RMB appreciated against the US dollar to below 7.08, even touching 7.0765—its highest level in the past year. What’s interesting is that this turning point coincides exactly with the easing of China-US relations and the warming up of expectations for Fed rate cuts.

To look back at history: from 2020 to 2024, these five years, the RMB went through a complete cycle. During the pandemic, the RMB saw a strong appreciation to around 6.3, but after 2022 it entered a depreciation phase, with the worst decline reaching above 7.3. Now it looks like this depreciation cycle may really be coming to an end.

Many international investment banks are bullish on the RMB. Deutsche Bank predicts the USD-to-RMB exchange rate will fall to around 6.7, while Morgan Stanley believes it could reach around 7.05 by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs is even more aggressive, expecting it to rise to 7.0 within the next 12 months. The logic behind these institutions’ forecasts is basically consistent: the RMB is undervalued, China’s export resilience is strong, and foreign capital is reconfiguring into RMB assets.

To judge the USD/RMB’s subsequent direction, I think several factors are key. First is the Federal Reserve’s policy timing—if rate cuts accelerate, the dollar will keep weakening, and the RMB naturally has room to appreciate. Second is progress in China-US negotiations—if trade relations remain stable, that is positive for the RMB. Third is China’s economic data and central bank policies—even though things may be somewhat accommodative in the short term, if the economy stabilizes, the RMB is still supported over the long run. （China’s central bank policies）

From an investment perspective, there really may be opportunities now. In the short term, the RMB may still trade sideways within a range, but the long-term trend seems to be shifting. If you want to participate, you can do so through bank foreign exchange accounts, foreign exchange trading platforms, or the futures market. Many platforms now support two-way trading and leverage, but leverage should be used cautiously—risk management is very important.

Overall, the RMB depreciation cycle that began in 2022 may truly be coming to a close. This round of appreciation in the USD-to-RMB exchange rate reflects improving expectations for China’s economy and subtle changes in the international landscape. For investors looking to participate, if you can grasp how these macro factors are changing, you can greatly improve the odds of catching the timing.