I just noticed an interesting phenomenon in the market today. The S&P 500 stocks surged past 7,400 points, reaching a new all-time high for the sixth consecutive week, but gold XAUUSD remains steady at $4,726, not moving up to $5,000. This phenomenon is called the Great Divergence — stocks playing greed, but gold playing fear.

The reason is quite clear. JPMorgan and Bank of America confirm that inflation will stay above 3% until 2027. There’s no rate cut expected. The interest rate is at 3.75%, but inflation is at 3.7%, meaning the real interest rate is almost zero. Who would want to hold cash? Gold is the answer.

Today, keep a close eye on the CPI release at 19:30. The forecast is 3.7%. If it comes out lower, gold will surge past $4,764 toward $4,800. If it’s higher, the dollar will strengthen, and gold might test the support level at $4,673. The change in Fed leadership from Powell to Warsh this Friday is also a key variable. Warsh does not have unanimous support in the Senate. This uncertainty makes institutional investors pour money into gold for safety.

The RSI is at 57, leaving room to rise. If you’re waiting to buy, wait until the CPI is released and the price shows the direction. Avoid over-leveraging during news releases, as volatility will be very high. Personally, I’m waiting for signals from the CPI news first. If the trend is clear, I’ll enter according to the trend for safer trading.