Gold appears to be stuck in a waiting game in the middle of the year. This is what I noticed from analyzing historical data: after a slight contraction, prices remain close to $5,000. Although the dollar index (DXY) continues to be strong, weak economic data—such as retail sales that are unchanged month-over-month at 0% and down from the previous month—has still not been able to push gold prices higher significantly.

One interesting point is the labor market. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) fell to 0.7% per quarter, lower than the previous quarter, suggesting that the labor market may be weakening. This is causing investors to increase expectations that the central bank will further cut interest rates in 2026, but this still hasn’t driven gold prices sharply higher.

From a technical perspective, gold is trading in a range of $5,000–$5,100. The RSI index is still in the middle range, meaning sellers are limiting the upward movement. If gold rises above $5,100, it may test the next level at $5,200. But if it falls below $5,000, it could test the 20-day moving average at $4,910. Personally, I believe that the Chinese central bank’s continued purchases of gold for its reserves are a fundamental supportive factor, even though in the short term it seems there is a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.