I happened to see someone asking how much an ounce of silver costs, and it reminded me of my previous judgment on the silver trend toward 2026. To be honest, the performance over the past year or so has indeed exceeded many people's expectations.

I still remember at the end of 2025, the market generally regarded silver as a "discounted version" of gold, but looking back now, that logic has been completely rewritten. Silver has never been a subordinate asset to a safe haven; it has its own independent story—a story pulled in two directions by both financial attributes and industrial attributes.

To understand the true trend of silver, the first question is always not "Will the price go up," but "How is the market currently perceiving it." Is it being chased as a safe haven asset, or is it just driven by industrial demand? This positioning determines everything. The 140% surge in 2025 was driven by these two factors simultaneously—re-pricing of geopolitical risks, combined with substantial growth in green energy and AI demand.

Now, mid-2026, the macro environment still favors silver. The interest rate cycle is nearing its end; the Fed is unlikely to continue raising rates, which directly supports precious metals. More importantly, the tight supply situation has not eased; the global silver market has been running a supply deficit for years, and LBMA and COMEX inventories remain at historically low levels.

Many overlook that 70% of silver supply comes from by-products of copper, lead, and zinc mining, meaning silver production is largely unaffected by silver prices itself, depending instead on the mining cycles of other metals. Once supply and demand become unbalanced, prices tend to react with jumps.

Regarding industrial demand, I’ll be straightforward—it won't cause silver to skyrocket, but it will make it less likely to fall sharply. After upgrading from P-Type to N-Type solar technology, the silver consumption per watt has increased significantly. Coupled with the demand from electric vehicles, AI data centers, and high-end chips, these are solid, non-speculative needs that won't decrease just because silver prices rise. You could call this the "AI conduction tax"—tech giants must pay for efficiency, regardless of the price.

From a technical perspective, breaking through the $50 resistance line after 45 years changed the entire pattern. Now, $50 has become a support zone, with almost no clear historical accumulation area above it, indicating the market has entered a price discovery phase. Short-term sentiment is indeed overheated; indicators like RSI are in extreme zones, but as long as the monthly chart structure isn’t broken, this rally still belongs to a bullish extension.

What really needs to be watched is the flow of inventories in LBMA and COMEX. If inventories continue to decline in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, physical market tightness will intensify, and when technical breakouts and fundamentals resonate, a short squeeze could happen unexpectedly.

But the risk of chasing high at the top is significant. A more rational approach is to wait for a pullback. The $65-$68 range is a dense trading zone after recent breakouts; if the trend remains healthy, there should be buying interest on a retest. Further down, the $55-$60 support structure is crucial—if prices fall back there, the market will need to reassess the entire bullish narrative.

Currently, trading silver requires attention to several risks. Short-term momentum indicators are already extreme; before holidays or during periods of low liquidity, sharp rises followed by volatility are common. If the Fed turns hawkish or macroeconomic data worsen, industrial demand expectations will be re-priced. For assets like silver, which are highly linked to physical demand, short-term pressure is normal. The real concern isn’t deteriorating fundamentals but a rapid shift in sentiment at high levels—once prices fall back, high-leverage positions will trigger chain reactions of stop-losses.

Regarding trading tools, physical silver premiums are too high—buying it means a 20-30% loss, which is more suitable for inheritance than profit. ETFs are liquid but have management fees, making them less ideal for capturing silver’s high volatility. For those aiming to profit from silver swings in 2026, CFDs are actually a more efficient tool. Silver’s intraday volatility often reaches 3-5%, and with CFDs, you can go long or short, quickly hedge, lock in profits, and re-enter on dips. No physical premium, purely tracking the price, with 24-hour trading—this flexibility is unmatched by physical or ETF holdings.

Silver has never been an asset you buy and hold for three or five years without watching; its inherent volatility is high. If you expect a stable holding experience like gold, silver will likely disappoint you. But if you’re looking for an asset that might surprise you at macro turning points, silver at least deserves to be on your watchlist. The key is to understand market rhythm, capital character, and macro positioning—building your judgment before the actual turn, so even if silver fluctuates at a few dollars, you’ll be prepared.