I noticed that the WTI crude oil barrel is moving strongly around the $72 level during the Asian session, and the price is still very close to its highest levels in recent months. The situation in the Middle East is indeed playing a major role in supporting prices – escalating tensions and news about closing the Strait of Hormuz increase concerns about supply disruptions, which provides real support for the commodity.

But at the same time, in the dollar-denominated oil market today, there are factors limiting further rises. OPEC+’s decision to increase production by about 206,000 barrels per day is putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the US dollar is very strong right now due to the global flight to safety, which means that dollar-priced commodities like oil become more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand.

It seems that the market is now balanced between support from geopolitical factors and pressure from increased production and a strong dollar. The next move depends on which of these factors will dominate the other in the coming days.