I saw the Retail Sales news yesterday; retail sales didn’t grow at all (0.0%) even though economists expected 0.4%. Clothing, furniture, electrical appliances, and restaurants all dropped. Now Americans are definitely starting to tighten their belts, which means the Fed has pressure to cut interest rates sooner.

The main event is tonight’s NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls)—the January jobs figure that was delayed from the Government Shutdown. The market expects 69,000-70,000 positions, but what’s more interesting is the Annual Benchmark Revision that will adjust the figures retroactively. Bloomberg says this revision will reduce the number of jobs by a lot. If the NFP comes out worse than expected, gold has a strong chance to surge.

On the 4-hour chart, gold is forming an Ascending Triangle. Yesterday, it surged from $5,035 to touch $5,070, confirming bullish momentum. The current price is running around $5,036-$5,040. If it breaks above $5,093, the calculated target would be approximately $5,500+. However, keep an eye on the Ascending Trendline around $4,920-$4,940—if it breaks down, the pattern will be invalidated.

The RSI is around 55-58, still far from overbought. Gold still has a lot of upside room. Stochastic RSI has dropped to around 60, indicating that momentum is just catching its breath—this isn’t a reversal. UBS targets $5,900 by the end of the year. No matter how high the volatility is, gold is up 16% since the start of the year.

For those who plan to enter trades: if you’re a scalper, look for a Buy on Dip around $5,000-$5,020, with targets at $5,050-$5,070, but don’t forget to set your Stop Loss. Volatility before NFP will be very high. Swing traders should wait for NFP—if it comes out worse than expected and the price breaks above $5,093, that’s a good entry point. For those who already hold gold, just stay calm; fundamentals haven’t changed. Central banks are still buying, and interest rates are trending downward. What happened last week was just a shakeout.