I just noticed that the change in the Japanese yen against the Thai baht is more profound than I thought. Right now, the yen is around 0.2176 baht per yen, which means 70,000 yen equals about 15,200 baht. But the problem is that, over the past ten years, the yen has depreciated by more than 30% compared with the baht.

The main reason is the policy of the Bank of Japan, which still clings to YCC (Yield Curve Control) and continuous monetary easing, while other central banks such as the Fed and the ECB have begun tightening their policies. It is this interest-rate differential that is causing the yen to weaken.

Another factor is that Japan’s economy itself is not as strong as expected. Even though GDP ranks 5th in the world at around $4.19 trillion, its growth is not on par with other countries. Meanwhile, the baht has been supported by a recovery in tourism, strong regional trade, and inflows of foreign capital.

From a long-term perspective, since 2012 the yen/baht has been in a continuous downtrend, falling below 0.2400 in 2023 and now testing the support level at 0.2150, which is a very important level.

What’s interesting is that if the Bank of Japan makes a serious move away from YCC, the yen could rebound to 0.2250–0.2300 in the second half of 2025. But now we are reaching a critical point. If the Bank of Japan has no clear signals to tighten policy, it may test new lows below 0.2100.

For 2026, the factors to watch include the interest-rate differentials between countries, how quickly the Bank of Japan will adjust policy, and the likelihood that Japanese investors will send money back home. If the support at 0.2150 remains strong, the yen could gradually strengthen to 0.2300–0.2400. But if that support breaks, we may see the yen test new lows below 0.2100.

Based on short-term technical indicators, there are 7 indicators signaling a sell, 1 indicating sell, and 5 neutral. The moving averages are split evenly—6 sell signals and 6 buy signals—which suggests the market still lacks a clear direction, but the downward pressure is clearly visible.

Overall, 2026 could be a pivotal transition year for the yen, depending on how boldly the Bank of Japan acts and what happens in the global market.