I just noticed an interesting game reversal in the crypto market yesterday. Strategy sent signals via social media that they are preparing to buy back Bitcoin into their treasury again after Michael Saylor confirmed during the earnings presentation that he was considering selling some to pay dividends. This caused crypto enthusiasts to feel shaken for a while.

The interesting figure is that the parent company holds a full 818,334 BTC with an average cost of about $75,537. CEO Phong Le explained that their plan to sell coins for dividend payments is just a liquidity management strategy. With daily spot market trading volume exceeding $60 billion, their billion-dollar sales hardly caused any price impact. This is a financial strategy many see as clever because they are essentially adjusting their game to attract institutional investors to hold more shares, using Bitcoin market liquidity as a buffer.

But now, the price itself is shaking the crypto market again, as the U.S. inflation forecast for April jumps to 3.56%. This signal might cause the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. Bitcoin is currently at $77,480, but the technical chart is warning us because the price is forming a rising wedge pattern, which often signals a reversal downtrend.

What’s more concerning is that institutional buying momentum is clearly waning, especially as Strategy’s stock trades below its pegged value, making it harder to raise funds to buy more coins. Many analysts warn that if the price breaks below a key support level around $78,600, we might see a sell-off to sweep liquidity, pushing the price down to $70,000. Conversely, if it breaks through resistance and the 200-day moving average, the chance to rally back to $90,000 remains open.

Ethereum’s situation is more worrying. Compared to Bitcoin over the past year, its value has dropped more than 35%. The current price is $2,130, and the chart remains below the pressure line since 2022. Data from global trading platforms shows that 3.62 million coins are waiting to be sold on the order book, which contrasts with Bitcoin, where many are withdrawing to hold in cold storage. Analysts warn that if buying remains dry, the price could fall another 40%, returning to the lows of 2020. This signals that Ethereum’s deflationary asset status is losing its appeal, while large institutional funds are shifting their focus and money into Bitcoin instead.

But what might truly determine the long-term crypto market is U.S. law. Consensys lawyer Bill Hughes warns that the 2025 CLARITY Act is under intense pressure. Congress has only a few weeks left before the adjournment in August. After that, the entire political calendar shifts to midterm election campaigning. If this bill isn’t passed in time, the chances of comprehensive crypto regulation laws being enacted could be frozen until 2030, meaning the crypto industry in the U.S. will remain uncertain, opening the door for capital to flow out to other regions with clearer laws.

The Fear and Greed Index today stands at 48, indicating the crypto market is in a state of indecision.