It seems that today the market is playing a heated game with many issues happening simultaneously. The events occurring, whether in Washington or at the Hormuz Strait, all impact gold prices and the financial markets.

Starting with the event that the whole world was watching, last Saturday night there was an assassination attempt on an American leader at a fancy party in Washington. Cole Thomas Allen brought weapons but was lucky that an agent protected him. Trump survived and came out to hold a press conference as if nothing happened. Normally, when such news breaks, gold prices surge sharply, but interestingly, gold prices today only moved slightly higher because the market is still waiting to see how the investigation unfolds.

Looking at the situation at the Hormuz Strait, the ongoing war is what’s holding back gold prices. Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to deploy mines, while Iran’s foreign minister is flying to Pakistan and Russia to seek allies. Oil prices surged, pushing inflation up, which prevents gold prices from rising freely.

What really needs to be watched is the FOMC meeting of the Fed this Thursday. Jerome Powell is preparing to step down before Kevin Warsh, a hawkish candidate, takes over in May. Interest rates will remain at 3.5 to 3.75 percent for sure, but the key is what Powell will say. If a hawkish tone comes out strongly, the dollar will strengthen and gold prices will be hammered down.

Looking at the U.S. GDP data for the first quarter, which will be released on Thursday, if the figures come out weak, the Fed might start to loosen. Gold could then have a chance to surge. But if the numbers are strong, gold will have to drop into the hole. The gold chart now shows it breaking out of its range and testing the $4,710 zone, still stuck on the EMA 12 and 26 lines. This situation indicates the market is testing patience. If gold can hold steady, it will turn resistance into support and continue running in the long term. But if it falls back into the range, it’s just a trap to lure in the naive traders. Short-term players should set their Stop Loss carefully.

Turning to the Thai stock market, the situation is quite dull. The index is moving sideways between 1,450 and 1,465 points, driven by the Middle East tensions. But amidst this boredom, the technology and electronic component sectors are running counter to the market, as if they see nothing. DELTA is stuck with a Cash Balance and can’t do anything, so money is flowing into HANA, KCE, and CCET instead. Quick traders can comfortably speculate. Today, everyone should keep an eye on the Cabinet’s economic meeting to see if measures like Thai Plus will be announced. If they do, the stock market might pick up momentum. We’ll have to wait and see what happens.