I saw this news circulating and found it interesting how the market is processing all of this. Iran responded to the American ceasefire proposal through Pakistani mediators, but keeps the content of the response confidential. Meanwhile, Wall Street and oil traders are on high alert.

What really catches attention is how all of this connects with cryptocurrencies. Tensions in the Gulf since February have been pushing up oil prices, fueling inflation and delaying any American rate cuts with risk factors behind them. Basically, as long as there’s pressure on fuels, the Fed holds off on rate cuts. And that affects everything that’s a risk asset—technology, stocks, Bitcoin.

Andrew Slimmon from Morgan Stanley was very straightforward: if the conflict cools down in the coming weeks, we could see rate cuts later this year. But here’s the point—the American rate cut with risk factors behind it heavily depends on how the situation develops. Bitcoin has been reacting like a pure risk asset lately, sensitive to the macroeconomic scenario.

The numbers speak for themselves: during the 2023 banking crisis, Bitcoin rose over 35% in a month when the market anticipated financial relief. In 2022, when inflation was exploding and the Fed responded with rate hikes, Bitcoin fell more than 60%. Now it’s at $77.5k, and the correlation with the Nasdaq in major market moves is quite clear.

The scenario remains tense. The UAE and Kuwait intercepted drones, there were drone attacks near Qatar and in Iraq. Trump’s Operation Freedom, which attempted to escort ships in the Gulf, was abandoned in May after attacks on American naval facilities. Netanyahu continues to insist that the conflict won’t end as long as Iran maintains its stockpile of enriched uranium—IAEA estimates about 440 kilograms at 60% purity.

Trump, in turn, adopted a more moderate tone in a recent interview, talking about surveillance and deterrence. The approach difference between him and Netanyahu complicates negotiations, especially with Iran modernizing its nuclear infrastructure.

For those following crypto, the question is simple: liquidity. If oil stabilizes, inflationary pressure drops, and the American rate cut with risk factors behind it becomes less distant. On-chain data shows investors flee to stablecoins during periods of uncertainty and return to Bitcoin when things normalize. Trump will visit China while Beijing pressures for reduced tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. How Iran reacts—whether negotiating or escalating—will significantly influence market sentiment in oil, stocks, and cryptocurrencies at the start of summer. It’s worth keeping an eye on.