I just noticed that many people talk about Black Swan, but not many really understand what it actually is. Let’s talk about it, because Black Swan events have a huge impact on our investments and the economy.

Black swans have existed since Roman times. Back then, people believed that swans had to be white only—until 1697, when a Dutch captain named Willem de Vlamingh discovered real black swans in ออสเตรเลีย. This changed people’s thinking: something that was considered “impossible” became something that can actually happen.

In 2007, the American economist of Lebanese descent Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a book called *The Black Swan*, explaining that a black swan is an event beyond expectations, creating a major impact—and when it happens, people then look for reasons to explain why it occurred.

Looking at real examples, events that shook ประเทศไทย significantly include foreign exchange reserves falling far more than in other countries, dropping by 3.2 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ to rank second after อินเดีย, causing Thai people to worry about another ต้มยำกุ้ง-style crisis happening again.

Then there is the Russia-Ukraine war, which pushed oil prices higher, leading to higher inflation. The dollar strengthened while the baht weakened. All these supply-chain issues affect ประเทศไทย indirectly, but they are still severe—such as fertilizer prices rising because of natural gas prices, and the cost of living increasing.

Oh, and what about COVID-19? That was a real black swan—no one could predict it. The Lockdown shut down 90% of the private sector, forcing many industries to close. People became unemployed, and there was an unprecedented market crash with no end in sight for how far it would fall.

For 2566, the market is warning us of several problems. The global economy may enter a recession. Thai stocks have a more positive outlook due to the tourism recovery, but the crypto market remains at risk from Black Swan events—like in 2564, when บิทคอยน์ fell and briefly hit 30,000 ดอลลาร์. Gold could also be an option for investors because demand from จีน and อินเดีย, while the dollar weakens after U.S. inflation eases.

When preparing to be an investor, the first thing is to accept that the next black swan will come. Don’t panic, but do prepare. Second, when prices fall because of a Black Swan event, invest in stable companies—prices will rise again. Third, diversify your investment portfolio. Don’t put all your assets into one thing. Spread them across stocks, bonds, precious metals, and real estate.

There’s another technique: use financial tools such as options or futures to hedge against risks. And most importantly, maintain a long-term perspective. Even though Black Swan events can impact the short term, markets often rebound and recover over time.

Actually, Black Swan is a reminder to stay alert. If we learn how to respond well, have backup plans, and anticipate the negative side of things in advance, then no matter how big the crisis is, we can turn the negative into something positive. Use Black Swans as a warning to brace for threats, and always remember that everything is possible—even if the chance is very small.