I have recently noticed that many people are asking when gold prices will rise in the UAE and in other global markets. The truth is that what happened during 2025 was truly exceptional. Gold saw a dramatic surge that we haven’t witnessed in decades, and I’m closely following these moves.

At the start of 2025, gold opened at $2,623 per ounce, then rose by more than 47% during the first few months. The performance was crazy—if that expression is accurate. The reason? A complex mix of economic and geopolitical factors. The U.S. tariff measures imposed by Trump frightened investors, so they turned to the safe haven. Then military confrontations in the Middle East came along to make matters even worse.

The U.S. Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25% in September, which pushed gold up by 22.9% in that month alone. Lower interest rates mean gold, which yields no return, becomes more attractive. Completely logical.

As for when gold prices in the UAE and worldwide will rise in the future, it depends on several factors. Global inflation is still high, around 4.2%, according to the International Monetary Fund. Central banks continued buying gold to strengthen their reserves. Gold exchange-traded funds increased their holdings by 41% to reach $383 billion. All of this supports prices.

From a technical perspective, gold has been moving in a strong upward trend since mid-2024. It broke through major resistance levels like $3700 and $3800. But in recent days, it faced resistance at $4050, the upper limit of the Bollinger Band indicator. The MACD indicator has started showing signs of slowing down, suggesting an imminent correction.

There are two scenarios we should take seriously. The first scenario is relative stability, where conditions remain the same and gold stays in a range of $3500 to $3600. That would translate to an annual return of about 34%.

The second scenario—one I consider more likely—is what I call the ignition scenario. U.S. inflation has returned to an upward trend, reaching 2.9%. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice between cutting rates and avoiding inflation. The U.S. government shutdown that began in October threatens to delay economic data. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China are rising again. All of this pushes gold higher. In this scenario, we may see gold break above $4000 with a strong breakout, and possibly finish the year around $4100 to $4400.

As for when gold prices rise specifically in the UAE, prices there move with the global market, but they may also be affected by UAE monetary policies and local investments. Gulf central banks are increasing their gold reserves, which supports local demand.

Strategically, if you’re thinking about long-term investment, you should allocate around 15% to 20% of your portfolio to gold. This helps absorb sudden shocks. Some options available include gold exchange-traded funds, or even CFDs if you want more flexibility and leverage.

Technical outlooks point to a correction toward $3820 to $3900 over the coming weeks, followed by a gradual upward return toward $4100 to $4200. But if we break the $3820 level, we could see a deeper correction.

In the end, when gold prices rise in the UAE and globally depends on how economic and geopolitical conditions develop. But the fundamentals remain very strong. Institutional demand is robust, inflation is still elevated, and geopolitical risks persist. All of this works in favor of the yellow metal. Anyone watching the market carefully now can take advantage of these opportunities.